WON Tip WON Inter Milan 3-0 Cagliari
I

Inter Milan

Home
W W D D L
4W 3D 3L → Steady
VS
3-0
C
Cagliari
Away
W L L L L
2W 2D 6L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Friday, 17th April 2026
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals
Implied Prob 84.7% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +0.3% Value detected
Kelly % 1.7% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
8
Inter Milan
2
Draws
0
Cagliari
10
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 1.5 in 90% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Inter Milan
Metric
Cagliari
1.7
Goals For / Game
0.9
1.3
Goals Against / Game
1.3
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
4-3-3
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
40%
20%
2.6
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
I0
0-0 7.4%
0-1 8.2%
0-2 4.5%
0-3 1.7%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
I1
1-0 11.1%
1-1 12.3%
1-2 6.7%
1-3 2.5%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
I2
2-0 8.4%
2-1 9.2%
2-2 5.1%
2-3 1.9%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
I3
3-0 4.2%
3-1 4.6%
3-2 2.5%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
I4
4-0 1.6%
4-1 1.7%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
I5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(12.3%) 1-0(11.1%) 2-1(9.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip I=Home goals ↓   C=Away →
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Team Ratings
Grades
Inter Milan
Overall
4.9
Scoring
5.7
Defence
5.7
Cagliari
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.0
Defence
5.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%
Home Win & BTTS No 24%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 19%
Home Win & Under 2.5 28%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 17%
Away Win & Over 2.5 10%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
27.09.25Serie A
Cagliari0
Inter2
12.04.25Serie A
Inter3
Cagliari1
28.12.24Serie A
Cagliari0
Inter3
14.04.24Serie A
Inter2
Cagliari2
28.08.23Serie A
Cagliari0
Inter2
15.05.22Serie A
Cagliari1
Inter3
12.12.21Serie A
Inter4
Cagliari0
11.04.21Serie A
Inter1
Cagliari0
13.12.20Serie A
Cagliari1
Inter3
26.01.20Serie A
Inter1
Cagliari1
Recent Form
Inter Milan
12.04.26Serie A
Como3
Inter Milan4
W
05.04.26Serie A
Inter Milan5
AS Roma2
W
22.03.26Serie A
Fiorentina1
Inter Milan1
D
14.03.26Serie A
Inter Milan1
Atalanta1
D
08.03.26Serie A
AC Milan1
Inter Milan0
L
03.03.26Coppa Italia
Como0
Inter Milan0
D
28.02.26Serie A
Inter Milan2
Genoa0
W
24.02.26Champions League
Inter Milan1
Bodo/Glimt2
L
21.02.26Serie A
Lecce0
Inter Milan2
W
18.02.26Champions League
Bodo/Glimt3
Inter Milan1
L
Cagliari
11.04.26Serie A
Cagliari1
Cremonese0
W
04.04.26Serie A
Sassuolo2
Cagliari1
L
20.03.26Serie A
Cagliari0
Napoli1
L
15.03.26Serie A
Pisa3
Cagliari1
L
07.03.26Serie A
Cagliari1
Como2
L
27.02.26Serie A
Parma1
Cagliari1
D
21.02.26Serie A
Cagliari0
Lazio0
D
16.02.26Serie A
Cagliari0
Lecce2
L
09.02.26Serie A
AS Roma2
Cagliari0
L
31.01.26Serie A
Cagliari4
Verona0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Friday, 17th April 2026, Inter Milan host Cagliari in Serie A. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Inter Milan arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Cagliari are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 2D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Inter Milan, who lead the head-to-head with 8 wins to Cagliari's 0, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.18 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Serie A match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing Over 1.5, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.18. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Inter Milan vs Cagliari?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.18. Tip confidence rating: 85%.
What is Inter Milan's current form?
Inter Milan have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Cagliari been performing recently?
Cagliari have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Inter Milan lead with 8 wins versus Cagliari's 0, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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