WON Tip WON Tartu Welco 3-2 Levadia U21
T

Tartu Welco

Home
W W W W L
5W 1D 4L ▼ Declining
VS
3-2
L
Levadia U21
Away
L L L L W
4W 0D 6L → Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection · Friday, 17th April 2026
1
Backing Tartu Welco to win
Tartu Welco 50%
Draw 20%
Levadia U21 30%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 5
A Fair Odds 3.33
Implied Prob 72.5% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -25.5% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Tartu Welco to win
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals90% Over 1.5 Goals95% BTTS — Yes75%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Tartu Welco vs Levadia U21 Competition: Estonia Esiliiga Date: Friday, 17th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Tartu Welco to win) Odds: 1.38 Confidence: 47% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (90%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%) Also: BTTS — Yes (75%)
Head to Head
Record
4
Tartu Welco
4
Draws
2
Levadia U21
10
Meetings
3.1
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Tartu Welco won 4 of the last 10 meetings (4 draws).
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Tartu Welco
Metric
Levadia U21
2.6
Goals For / Game
1.9
2
Goals Against / Game
2.2
10%
Clean Sheets
10%
5-1-4
W — D — L
4-0-6
Win Rate
50%
40%
4.4
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
90%
Over 2.5
75%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
T0
0-0 1.3%
0-1 2.5%
0-2 2.5%
0-3 1.6%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.3%
T1
1-0 3.1%
1-1 6.0%
1-2 5.9%
1-3 3.8%
1-4 1.9%
1-5 0.7%
T2
2-0 3.7%
2-1 7.3%
2-2 7.1%
2-3 4.6%
2-4 2.2%
2-5 0.9%
T3
3-0 3.0%
3-1 5.8%
3-2 5.7%
3-3 3.7%
3-4 1.8%
3-5 0.7%
T4
4-0 1.8%
4-1 3.5%
4-2 3.4%
4-3 2.2%
4-4 1.1%
4-5 0.4%
T5
5-0 0.9%
5-1 1.7%
5-2 1.6%
5-3 1.1%
5-4 0.5%
5-5 0.2%
Top Scores 2-1(7.3%) 3-1(5.8%) 3-2(5.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip T=Home goals ↓   L=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Tartu Welco Win
50%
2
Draw
20%
5
Levadia U21 Win
30%
3.33
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Tartu Welco
Overall
5.3
Scoring
8.7
Defence
3.3
Levadia U21
Overall
4.0
Scoring
6.3
Defence
2.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 40%
Home Win & BTTS No 13%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 1%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 48%
Home Win & Under 2.5 5%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 38%
Away Win & Under 2.5 4%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
27.09.25Esiliiga
Levadia U211
Tartu Welco1
12.07.25Esiliiga
Tartu Welco3
Levadia U210
29.05.25Esiliiga
Levadia U213
Tartu Welco3
20.04.25Esiliiga
Tartu Welco1
Levadia U210
19.09.24Esiliiga
Levadia U211
Tartu Welco0
20.07.24Esiliiga
Tartu Welco1
Levadia U211
26.05.24Esiliiga
Levadia U212
Tartu Welco2
21.04.24Esiliiga
Tartu Welco3
Levadia U212
17.11.21Esiliiga
Levadia U212
Tartu Welco0
03.10.21Esiliiga
Tartu Welco3
Levadia U212
Recent Form
Tartu Welco
11.04.26Esiliiga
Nomme Kalju U211
Tartu Welco5
W
03.04.26Esiliiga
Nomme Utd U211
Tartu Welco3
W
21.03.26Esiliiga
Tartu Welco5
Maardu1
W
14.03.26Esiliiga
Flora U211
Tartu Welco6
W
10.03.26Estonian Cup
Parnu JK Vaprus2
Tartu Welco1
L
05.03.26Esiliiga
Tartu Welco3
Tallinna Kalev0
W
25.02.26Club Friendly
Narva2
Tartu Welco2
D
21.02.26Club Friendly
Tartu Welco0
Metta4
L
24.01.26Club Friendly
Harju JK Laagri3
Tartu Welco0
L
14.01.26Club Friendly
Paide5
Tartu Welco1
L
Levadia U21
11.04.26Esiliiga
Maardu3
Levadia U212
L
05.04.26Esiliiga
Levadia U211
Flora U213
L
21.03.26Esiliiga
Elva3
Levadia U212
L
16.03.26Esiliiga
Levadia U210
Nomme Utd U211
L
07.03.26Esiliiga
Levadia U212
Nomme Kalju U210
W
21.02.26Club Friendly
Levadia U211
Tallinna Kalev4
L
15.02.26Club Friendly
Levadia U213
FC Tallinn2
W
07.02.26Club Friendly
Viimsi JK3
Levadia U211
L
31.01.26Club Friendly
Levadia U214
Nomme Kalju U211
W
24.01.26Club Friendly
Maardu2
Levadia U213
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Friday, 17th April 2026, Tartu Welco host Levadia U21 in Estonia Esiliiga. We recommend Tartu Welco to win as the standout selection.

Tartu Welco arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Levadia U21 are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 0D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Tartu Welco, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Levadia U21's 2, with 4 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: tartu welco to win at odds of 1.38 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Estonia Esiliiga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.38. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Tartu Welco vs Levadia U21?
Our selection is 1 — Tartu Welco to win, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 47%.
What is Tartu Welco's current form?
Tartu Welco have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Levadia U21 been performing recently?
Levadia U21 have recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Tartu Welco lead with 4 wins versus Levadia U21's 2, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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