WON Tip WON Lens 3-2 Toulouse
L

Lens

Home
W L W L W
5W 2D 3L ▲ Improving
VS
3-2
T
Toulouse
Away
L L W W L
2W 2D 6L → Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection · Friday, 17th April 2026
1X
Backing Lens to win or draw
Implied Prob 89.3% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +0.7% Value detected
Kelly % 6.7% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1X — Lens to win or draw
1.12
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Lens vs Toulouse Competition: Ligue 1 Date: Friday, 17th April 2026 Pick: 1X (Lens to win or draw) Odds: 1.12 Confidence: 90% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
7
Lens
1
Draws
2
Toulouse
10
Meetings
1.9
Avg Goals
20%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Neutral Insufficient H2H data.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Lens
Metric
Toulouse
2.4
Goals For / Game
1
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.8
20%
Clean Sheets
10%
5-2-3
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
50%
20%
3.3
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
L0
0-0 3.7%
0-1 4.4%
0-2 2.7%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
L1
1-0 7.8%
1-1 9.3%
1-2 5.6%
1-3 2.2%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
L2
2-0 8.1%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.3%
2-4 0.7%
2-5 0.2%
L3
3-0 5.7%
3-1 6.8%
3-2 4.1%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
L4
4-0 3.0%
4-1 3.6%
4-2 2.2%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
L5
5-0 1.3%
5-1 1.5%
5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.8%) 1-1(9.3%) 2-0(8.1%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip L=Home goals ↓   T=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Lens
Overall
5.6
Scoring
8.0
Defence
5.3
Toulouse
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.3
Defence
4.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 34%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Away Win & BTTS No 9%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 39%
Home Win & Under 2.5 17%
Draw & Over 2.5 15%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 15%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
02.01.26Ligue 1
Toulouse0
Lens3
10.05.25Ligue 1
Toulouse1
Lens1
05.01.25Ligue 1
Lens0
Toulouse1
28.01.24Ligue 1
Toulouse0
Lens2
24.09.23Ligue 1
Lens2
Toulouse1
02.05.23Ligue 1
Toulouse0
Lens1
28.10.22Ligue 1
Lens3
Toulouse0
14.03.15Ligue 1
Lens1
Toulouse0
24.10.14Ligue 1
Toulouse0
Lens2
12.03.11Ligue 1
Lens0
Toulouse1
Recent Form
Lens
11.04.26Club Friendly
Lens2
Rouen1
W
04.04.26Ligue 1
Lille3
Lens0
L
20.03.26Ligue 1
Lens5
Angers1
W
14.03.26Ligue 1
Lorient2
Lens1
L
08.03.26Ligue 1
Lens3
Metz0
W
05.03.26Coupe de France
Lyon2
Lens (4-2 on pens)2
W
27.02.26Ligue 1
Strasbourg1
Lens1
D
21.02.26Ligue 1
Lens2
Monaco3
L
14.02.26Ligue 1
Paris FC0
Lens5
W
07.02.26Ligue 1
Lens3
Rennes1
W
Toulouse
12.04.26Ligue 1
Toulouse0
Lille4
L
03.04.26Ligue 1
PSG3
Toulouse1
L
21.03.26Ligue 1
Toulouse1
Lorient0
W
15.03.26Ligue 1
Metz3
Toulouse4
W
07.03.26Ligue 1
Toulouse0
Marseille1
L
04.03.26Coupe de France
Marseille2
Toulouse (2-3 on pens)2
W
28.02.26Ligue 1
Rennes1
Toulouse0
L
21.02.26Ligue 1
Toulouse1
Paris FC1
D
15.02.26Ligue 1
Le Havre2
Toulouse1
L
08.02.26Ligue 1
Angers1
Toulouse0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Friday, 17th April 2026, Lens host Toulouse in Ligue 1. We recommend Lens to win or draw as the standout selection.

Lens arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Toulouse are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 2D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Lens, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Toulouse's 2, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.

Our verdict: lens to win or draw at odds of 1.12 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Ligue 1 match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1X, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.12. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Lens vs Toulouse?
Our selection is 1X — Lens to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.12. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is Lens's current form?
Lens have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Toulouse been performing recently?
Toulouse have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Lens lead with 7 wins versus Toulouse's 2, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.
⚠️
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