WON Tip WON PSG 3-0 Nantes
P

PSG

Home
L W W W W
7W 1D 2L ▼ Declining
VS
3-0
N
Nantes
Away
D D D L L
1W 3D 6L ▼ Declining
StraightWinOdds Selection · Wednesday, 22nd April 2026
1
Backing PSG to win
PSG 60%
Draw 20%
Nantes 20%
H Fair Odds 1.67
D Fair Odds 5
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 84% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -18% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
7
PSG
2
Draws
1
Nantes
10
Meetings
3.1
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip PSG won 7 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
PSG
Metric
Nantes
2.4
Goals For / Game
0.7
1
Goals Against / Game
1.2
50%
Clean Sheets
30%
7-1-2
W — D — L
1-3-6
Win Rate
70%
10%
2.7
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
N0
N1
N2
N3
N4
N5
P0
0-0 7.1%
0-1 6.0%
0-2 2.6%
0-3 0.7%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
P1
1-0 12.7%
1-1 10.8%
1-2 4.6%
1-3 1.3%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
P2
2-0 11.5%
2-1 9.7%
2-2 4.1%
2-3 1.2%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.0%
P3
3-0 6.9%
3-1 5.8%
3-2 2.5%
3-3 0.7%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
P4
4-0 3.1%
4-1 2.6%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
P5
5-0 1.1%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(12.7%) 2-0(11.5%) 2-1(9.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip P=Home goals ↓   N=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
PSG Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Nantes Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
PSG
Overall
7.3
Scoring
8.0
Defence
6.7
Nantes
Overall
1.9
Scoring
2.3
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Home Win & BTTS No 39%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 11%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 5%
Away Win & BTTS No 6%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 35%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 5%
Away Win & Under 2.5 5%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
17.08.25L1
Nantes0
PSG1
22.04.25L1
Nantes1
PSG1
30.11.24L1
PSG1
Nantes1
17.02.24L1
Nantes0
PSG2
09.12.23L1
PSG2
Nantes1
04.03.23L1
PSG4
Nantes2
03.09.22L1
Nantes0
PSG3
31.07.22SC
PSG4
Nantes0
19.02.22L1
Nantes3
PSG1
20.11.21L1
PSG3
Nantes1
Recent Form
PSG
19.04.26L1
PSG1
Lyon2
L
14.04.26CL
Liverpool0
PSG2
W
08.04.26CL
PSG2
Liverpool0
W
03.04.26L1
PSG3
Toulouse1
W
21.03.26L1
Nice0
PSG4
W
17.03.26CL
Chelsea0
PSG3
W
11.03.26CL
PSG5
Chelsea2
W
06.03.26L1
PSG1
Monaco3
L
28.02.26L1
Le Havre0
PSG1
W
25.02.26CL
PSG2
Monaco2
D
Nantes
19.04.26L1
Nantes1
Brest1
D
11.04.26L1
Auxerre0
Nantes0
D
05.04.26L1
Metz0
Nantes0
D
22.03.26L1
Nantes2
Strasbourg3
L
07.03.26L1
Nantes0
Angers1
L
01.03.26L1
Lille1
Nantes0
L
22.02.26L1
Nantes2
Le Havre0
W
13.02.26L1
Monaco3
Nantes1
L
07.02.26L1
Nantes0
Lyon1
L
31.01.26L1
Lorient2
Nantes1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Wednesday, 22nd April 2026, PSG host Nantes in Ligue 1. We recommend PSG to win as the standout selection.

PSG arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Nantes are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 3D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour PSG, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Nantes's 1, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: psg to win at odds of 1.19 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Ligue 1 match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.19. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for PSG vs Nantes?
Our selection is 1 — PSG to win, priced at approximately 1.19. Tip confidence rating: 66%.
What is PSG's current form?
PSG have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Nantes been performing recently?
Nantes have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
PSG lead with 7 wins versus Nantes's 1, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
Bet Responsibly. StraightWinOdds provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.
18+Gambling can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.