WON Tip WON Pakhtakor 2-2 Nasaf Qarshi
P

Pakhtakor

Home
W W W W W
8W 0D 2L → Steady
VS
2-2
N
Nasaf Qarshi
Away
L L D D W
4W 3D 3L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Tuesday, 28th April 2026
1X
Backing Pakhtakor to win or draw
Implied Prob 87.7% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +2.3% Value detected
Kelly % 18.6% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
1
Pakhtakor
5
Draws
4
Nasaf Qarshi
10
Meetings
1.5
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Neutral Insufficient H2H data.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Pakhtakor
Metric
Nasaf Qarshi
1.9
Goals For / Game
1.2
1
Goals Against / Game
1
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
8-0-2
W — D — L
4-3-3
Win Rate
80%
40%
2.6
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
N0
N1
N2
N3
N4
N5
P0
0-0 7.8%
0-1 8.6%
0-2 4.7%
0-3 1.7%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
P1
1-0 11.3%
1-1 12.5%
1-2 6.9%
1-3 2.5%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
P2
2-0 8.2%
2-1 9.0%
2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
P3
3-0 4.0%
3-1 4.4%
3-2 2.4%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
P4
4-0 1.4%
4-1 1.6%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
P5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(12.5%) 1-0(11.3%) 2-1(9.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip P=Home goals ↓   N=Away →
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Team Ratings
Grades
Pakhtakor
Overall
8.0
Scoring
6.3
Defence
6.7
Nasaf Qarshi
Overall
4.9
Scoring
4.0
Defence
6.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Home Win & BTTS No 27%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 24%
Home Win & Under 2.5 35%
Draw & Over 2.5 4%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 12%
Away Win & Under 2.5 18%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
20.11.25SL
Pakhtakor1
Nasaf Qarshi0
27.06.25SL
Nasaf Qarshi2
Pakhtakor2
10.08.24SL
Nasaf Qarshi1
Pakhtakor0
29.05.24SUC
Pakhtakor1
Nasaf Qarshi (1 - 1)2
08.03.24SL
Pakhtakor0
Nasaf Qarshi0
03.11.23SL
Pakhtakor1
Nasaf Qarshi1
24.08.23SUC
Pakhtakor1
Nasaf Qarshi2
15.08.23SL
Nasaf Qarshi0
Pakhtakor0
02.10.22SL
Pakhtakor0
Nasaf Qarshi1
07.05.22SL
Nasaf Qarshi0
Pakhtakor0
Recent Form
Pakhtakor
22.04.26SL
Buxoro0
Pakhtakor1
W
18.04.26SL
Pakhtakor4
Din. Samarkand2
W
13.04.26SL
Pakhtakor2
Mashal Muborak1
W
09.04.26SL
Neftchi Fargona0
Pakhtakor1
W
04.04.26SL
Pakhtakor3
OKMK1
W
20.03.26SL
Sogdiana2
Pakhtakor4
W
15.03.26SUC
Neftchi Fargona1
Pakhtakor0
L
10.03.26SL
Pakhtakor0
Navbahor Namangan2
L
04.03.26SL
Kokand 19121
Pakhtakor2
W
27.02.26SL
Pakhtakor2
Qizilqum0
W
Nasaf Qarshi
23.04.26SL
Nasaf Qarshi2
Lok. Tashkent3
L
18.04.26SL
Neftchi Fargona2
Nasaf Qarshi1
L
13.04.26SL
Nasaf Qarshi1
Buxoro1
D
08.04.26SL
Kokand 19121
Nasaf Qarshi1
D
03.04.26SL
Nasaf Qarshi1
Andijan0
W
20.03.26SL
Nasaf Qarshi0
Termez Surkhon1
L
12.03.26SL
Din. Samarkand1
Nasaf Qarshi1
D
06.03.26SL
Sogdiana0
Nasaf Qarshi2
W
01.03.26SL
Nasaf Qarshi1
Xorazm Urganch0
W
16.02.26CL
Al Sharjah1
Nasaf Qarshi2
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Tuesday, 28th April 2026, Pakhtakor host Nasaf Qarshi in Uzbekistan Super League. We recommend Pakhtakor to win or draw as the standout selection.

Pakhtakor arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Nasaf Qarshi are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 3D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Pakhtakor, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Nasaf Qarshi's 4, with 5 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: pakhtakor to win or draw at odds of 1.14 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Uzbekistan Super League match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1X, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.14. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Pakhtakor vs Nasaf Qarshi?
Our selection is 1X — Pakhtakor to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.14. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is Pakhtakor's current form?
Pakhtakor have won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Nasaf Qarshi been performing recently?
Nasaf Qarshi have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Pakhtakor lead with 1 wins versus Nasaf Qarshi's 4, with 5 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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