Moderate Signal 45% Confidence
D

Dijon

Home
W D W L W
6W 3D 1L ▼ Declining
VS
C
Chateauroux
Away
L L L D W
1W 2D 7L ▼ Declining
StraightWinOdds Selection · Thursday, 30th April 2026
1
Backing Dijon to win
Dijon 50%
Draw 30%
Chateauroux 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 71.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -26.4% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
2
Dijon
5
Draws
3
Chateauroux
10
Meetings
2.6
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Dijon won 2 of the last 10 meetings (5 draws).
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Dijon
Metric
Chateauroux
1.6
Goals For / Game
1
1
Goals Against / Game
2.1
40%
Clean Sheets
0%
6-3-1
W — D — L
1-2-7
Win Rate
60%
10%
2.9
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
D0
0-0 5.8%
0-1 5.8%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.1%
D1
1-0 10.7%
1-1 10.7%
1-2 5.4%
1-3 1.8%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
D2
2-0 9.9%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
D3
3-0 6.1%
3-1 6.1%
3-2 3.1%
3-3 1.0%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
D4
4-0 2.8%
4-1 2.8%
4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
D5
5-0 1.0%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(10.7%) 2-0(9.9%) 2-1(9.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip D=Home goals ↓   C=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Dijon Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Chateauroux Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
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Team Ratings
Grades
Dijon
Overall
6.9
Scoring
5.3
Defence
6.7
Chateauroux
Overall
1.6
Scoring
3.3
Defence
3.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 35%
Home Win & BTTS No 28%
Draw & BTTS Yes 14%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 6%
Away Win & BTTS No 5%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 32%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 13%
Away Win & Over 2.5 6%
Away Win & Under 2.5 6%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
12.12.25NAT
Chateauroux0
Dijon0
02.05.25NAT
Chateauroux3
Dijon3
10.01.25NAT
Dijon4
Chateauroux0
09.02.24NAT
Dijon1
Chateauroux1
01.09.23NAT
Chateauroux2
Dijon0
08.05.15L2
Dijon0
Chateauroux1
19.12.14L2
Chateauroux1
Dijon1
06.05.14L2
Dijon2
Chateauroux1
20.12.13L2
Chateauroux3
Dijon1
05.04.13L2
Dijon1
Chateauroux1
Recent Form
Dijon
24.04.26NAT
Valenciennes0
Dijon1
W
17.04.26NAT
Dijon0
Sochaux0
D
10.04.26NAT
Dijon2
Bourg en Bresse0
W
03.04.26NAT
Fleury-Merogis3
Dijon1
L
27.03.26NAT
Dijon3
Versailles1
W
19.03.26NAT
Quevilly Rouen0
Dijon1
W
13.03.26NAT
Dijon2
Aubagne1
W
06.03.26NAT
Concarneau1
Dijon1
D
20.02.26NAT
Villefranche1
Dijon2
W
13.02.26NAT
Dijon3
Caen3
D
Chateauroux
24.04.26NAT
Chateauroux0
Fleury-Merogis2
L
17.04.26NAT
Versailles4
Chateauroux0
L
10.04.26NAT
Chateauroux3
Quevilly Rouen5
L
03.04.26NAT
Aubagne1
Chateauroux1
D
27.03.26NAT
Chateauroux3
Concarneau1
W
17.03.26NAT
Stade Briochin2
Chateauroux0
L
13.03.26NAT
Chateauroux0
Villefranche1
L
06.03.26NAT
Caen2
Chateauroux2
D
27.02.26NAT
Chateauroux0
Paris 13 Atl.1
L
13.02.26NAT
Chateauroux1
Rouen2
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Thursday, 30th April 2026, Dijon host Chateauroux in France National. We recommend Dijon to win as the standout selection.

Dijon arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Chateauroux are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Dijon, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Chateauroux's 3, with 5 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: dijon to win at odds of 1.40 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming France National match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.40. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Dijon vs Chateauroux?
Our selection is 1 — Dijon to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 45%.
What is Dijon's current form?
Dijon have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Chateauroux been performing recently?
Chateauroux have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Dijon lead with 2 wins versus Chateauroux's 3, with 5 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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