WON Tip WON Erbil 3-1 Baghdad
E

Erbil

Home
W W L W D
7W 2D 1L โ†’ Steady
VS
3-1
B
Baghdad
Away
L W L L D
2W 4D 4L โ–ฒ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection ยท Tuesday, 2nd June 2026
1X
Backing Erbil to win or draw
Implied Prob 90.9% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -0.9% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
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Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1X โ€” Erbil to win or draw
1.10
Over 1.5 Goals85%
๐Ÿ“‹ Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Erbil vs Baghdad Competition: Iraq Stars League Date: Tuesday, 2nd June 2026 Pick: 1X (Erbil to win or draw) Odds: 1.10 Confidence: 90% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
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Head to Head
Record
5
Erbil
2
Draws
3
Baghdad
10
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Neutral Insufficient H2H data.
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Erbil
Metric
Baghdad
1.9
Goals For / Game
1.4
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.8
40%
Clean Sheets
0%
7-2-1
W โ€” D โ€” L
2-4-4
Win Rate
70%
20%
3
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
๐ŸŽฏ
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
E0
0-0 5.2%
0-1 5.8%
0-2 3.2%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
E1
1-0 9.7%
1-1 10.7%
1-2 5.9%
1-3 2.2%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
E2
2-0 9.0%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
E3
3-0 5.5%
3-1 6.1%
3-2 3.3%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
E4
4-0 2.6%
4-1 2.8%
4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
E5
5-0 1.0%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(10.7%) 2-1(9.9%) 1-0(9.7%)
โ–  Best match โ–  Possible โ–  Low ยท โ–  Contradicts tip E=Home goals โ†“   B=Away โ†’
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Team Ratings
Grades
Erbil
Overall
7.6 โ–ฒ
Scoring
6.3 โ–ฒ
Defence
7.3 โ–ฒ
Baghdad
Overall
3.2 โ€”
Scoring
4.7 โ€”
Defence
4.0 โ€”
๐Ÿ”€
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 38%
Home Win & BTTS No 20%
Draw & BTTS Yes 16%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 6%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 26%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
๐Ÿงฎ
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
โ€”
Kelly %
โ€”
Stake
โ€”
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
31.01.26SL
Baghdad3
Erbil0
26.05.24SL
Baghdad1
Erbil3
29.02.24SL
Erbil4
Baghdad1
15.02.22SL
Baghdad1
Erbil1
26.09.21SL
Erbil1
Baghdad2
24.02.21SL
Erbil2
Baghdad2
26.10.20SL
Baghdad0
Erbil2
17.06.19SL
Baghdad2
Erbil0
18.12.18SL
Erbil2
Baghdad0
06.12.16SL
Baghdad1
Erbil2
Recent Form
Erbil
28.05.26SL
Zakho1
Erbil2
W
20.05.26SL
Al Shorta0
Erbil2
W
16.05.26SL
Erbil0
Newroz1
L
11.05.26SL
Al Najaf1
Erbil4
W
06.05.26SL
Erbil2
Al Kahraba2
D
02.05.26SL
Erbil1
Al Karkh0
W
27.04.26SL
Al Talaba2
Erbil3
W
23.04.26SL
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1
Erbil1
D
18.04.26SL
Erbil2
Al-Qassim0
W
14.04.26SL
Al Naft0
Erbil2
W
Baghdad
27.05.26SL
Baghdad1
Al Gharraf3
L
19.05.26SL
Diyala1
Baghdad4
W
15.05.26SL
Baghdad0
Al Kahraba1
L
11.05.26SL
Al Karkh2
Baghdad1
L
07.05.26SL
Al Najaf1
Baghdad1
D
02.05.26SL
Baghdad2
Al-Qassim2
D
26.04.26SL
Baghdad2
Al Zawraa2
D
21.04.26SL
Al Minaa4
Baghdad0
L
17.04.26SL
Al Mosul1
Baghdad1
D
12.04.26SL
Baghdad2
Duhok1
W
๐Ÿ“
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Tuesday, 2nd June 2026, Erbil host Baghdad in Iraq Stars League. We recommend Erbil to win or draw as the standout selection.

Erbil arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Baghdad are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 4D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Erbil, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Baghdad's 3, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: erbil to win or draw at odds of 1.10 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Iraq Stars League match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1X, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.10. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

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Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Erbil vs Baghdad?
Our selection is 1X โ€” Erbil to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.10. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is Erbil's current form?
Erbil have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Baghdad been performing recently?
Baghdad have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Erbil lead with 5 wins versus Baghdad's 3, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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