F
FK Liepaja
Home
L
L
L
W
W
4W 1D 5L
▲ Improving
VS
—
5:00 pm
Daugavas stadions (Liepāja)
O
Ogre United
Away
W
L
W
L
L
2W 1D 7L
→ Steady
FK Liepaja
50%
Draw
30%
Ogre United
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
79.4%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-24.4%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — FK Liepaja to win
1.26
Over 2.5 Goals70%
Over 1.5 Goals95%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
FK Liepaja vs Ogre United
Competition: Latvia Virsliga
Date: Tuesday, 30th June 2026
KO: 5:00 pm
Pick: 1 (FK Liepaja to win)
Odds: 1.26
Confidence: 55%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%)
Head to Head
Record
2
FK Liepaja
0
Draws
0
Ogre United
2
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
FK Liepaja won 2 of the last 2 meetings (0 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
FK Liepaja
Metric
Ogre United
1.3
Goals For / Game
1.1
1.9
Goals Against / Game
3.1
10%
Clean Sheets
10%
4-1-5
W — D — L
2-1-7
Win Rate
3.7
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
O0
O1
O2
O3
O4
O5
F0
0-0
2.5%
0-1
3.7%
0-2
2.8%
0-3
1.4%
0-4
0.5%
0-5
0.2%
F1
1-0
5.4%
1-1
8.2%
1-2
6.1%
1-3
3.1%
1-4
1.2%
1-5
0.3%
F2
2-0
6.0%
2-1
9.0%
2-2
6.7%
2-3
3.4%
2-4
1.3%
2-5
0.4%
F3
3-0
4.4%
3-1
6.6%
3-2
4.9%
3-3
2.5%
3-4
0.9%
3-5
0.3%
F4
4-0
2.4%
4-1
3.6%
4-2
2.7%
4-3
1.4%
4-4
0.5%
4-5
0.2%
F5
5-0
1.1%
5-1
1.6%
5-2
1.2%
5-3
0.6%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.1%
Top Scores
2-1(9.0%)
3-1(6.6%)
2-0(6.0%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
F=Home goals ↓ O=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
FK Liepaja Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Ogre United Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
34%
Home Win & BTTS No
23%
Draw & BTTS Yes
8%
Draw & BTTS No
6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
17%
Away Win & BTTS No
12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
40%
Home Win & Under 2.5
17%
Draw & Over 2.5
10%
Draw & Under 2.5
4%
Away Win & Over 2.5
20%
Away Win & Under 2.5
9%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
FK Liepaja4
Ogre United1
Ogre United0
FK Liepaja1
Recent Form
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja0
RFS |2
Riga FC4
FK Liepaja |0
Grobina1
FK Liepaja |0
FK Liepaja2
Super Nova |1
FK Liepaja3
Tukums 2000 |0
Jelgava1
FK Liepaja |1
Auda3
FK Liepaja |1
FK Liepaja2
BFC Daugavpils |1
FK Liepaja4
Ogre United |1
RFS5
FK Liepaja |0
Ogre United
Ogre United3
Tukums 2000 |2
RFS6
Ogre United |0
Jelgava0
Ogre United |2
Ogre United1
Riga FC |4
Auda2
Ogre United |0
Ogre United1
Grobina |1
BFC Daugavpils3
Ogre United |1
Super Nova3
Ogre United |1
FK Liepaja4
Ogre United |1
Tukums 20006
Ogre United |1
FK Liepaja (Home)
FK Liepaja0
RFS |2
FK Liepaja2
Super Nova |1
FK Liepaja3
Tukums 2000 |0
FK Liepaja2
BFC Daugavpils |1
FK Liepaja4
Ogre United |1
FK Liepaja1
Grobina |1
FK Liepaja1
Jelgava |1
FK Liepaja1
Auda |2
FK Liepaja0
RFS |1
FK Liepaja2
Riga FC |1
Ogre United (Away)
RFS6
Ogre United |0
Jelgava0
Ogre United |2
Auda2
Ogre United |0
BFC Daugavpils3
Ogre United |1
Super Nova3
Ogre United |1
FK Liepaja4
Ogre United |1
Tukums 20006
Ogre United |1
Riga FC4
Ogre United |0
BFC Daugavpils2
Ogre United |1
RFS2
Ogre United |0
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Tuesday, 30th June 2026, FK Liepaja host Ogre United at Daugavas stadions (Liepāja) in Latvia Virsliga. We recommend FK Liepaja to win as the standout selection.
FK Liepaja arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Ogre United are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 1D 7L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour FK Liepaja, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Ogre United's 0, with 0 draws from 2 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.
Our verdict: fk liepaja to win at odds of 1.26 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Latvia Virsliga match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.26, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 5:00 pm over at Daugavas stadions (Liepāja).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for FK Liepaja vs Ogre United?
Our selection is 1 — FK Liepaja to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 55%.
What is FK Liepaja's current form?
FK Liepaja have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Ogre United been performing recently?
Ogre United have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
FK Liepaja lead with 2 wins versus Ogre United's 0, with 0 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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