L
Logan Lightning
Home
L
L
L
W
W
3W 0D 7L
▼ Declining
VS
—
11:30 am
Cornubia Park (Logan)
R
Redlands
Away
W
W
L
W
L
4W 2D 4L
▲ Improving
Implied Prob
70.4%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+16.6%
Value detected
Kelly %
56%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.42
Over 2.5 Goals70%
Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Logan Lightning vs Redlands
Competition: Australia Queensland PL
Date: Tuesday, 30th June 2026
KO: 11:30 am
Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals)
Odds: 1.42
Confidence: 87%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Head to Head
Record
4
Logan Lightning
0
Draws
1
Redlands
5
Meetings
5.2
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 2.5 in 100% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Logan Lightning
Metric
Redlands
1.3
Goals For / Game
2.5
2.3
Goals Against / Game
1.6
20%
Clean Sheets
30%
3-0-7
W — D — L
4-2-4
Win Rate
3.9
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
L0
0-0
2.1%
0-1
5.1%
0-2
6.1%
0-3
4.9%
0-4
2.9%
0-5
1.4%
L1
1-0
3.1%
1-1
7.4%
1-2
8.9%
1-3
7.1%
1-4
4.3%
1-5
2.1%
L2
2-0
2.2%
2-1
5.4%
2-2
6.4%
2-3
5.2%
2-4
3.1%
2-5
1.5%
L3
3-0
1.1%
3-1
2.6%
3-2
3.1%
3-3
2.5%
3-4
1.5%
3-5
0.7%
L4
4-0
0.4%
4-1
0.9%
4-2
1.1%
4-3
0.9%
4-4
0.5%
4-5
0.3%
L5
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.1%
Top Scores
1-2(8.9%)
1-1(7.4%)
1-3(7.1%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
L=Home goals ↓ R=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
21%
Home Win & BTTS No
17%
Draw & BTTS Yes
7%
Draw & BTTS No
6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
27%
Away Win & BTTS No
22%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
27%
Home Win & Under 2.5
11%
Draw & Over 2.5
9%
Draw & Under 2.5
4%
Away Win & Over 2.5
34%
Away Win & Under 2.5
15%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Logan Lightning3
Redlands1
Redlands0
Logan Lightning7
Logan Lightning2
Redlands3
Redlands0
Logan Lightning4
Logan Lightning5
Redlands1
Recent Form
Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning1
Caboolture |3
Logan Lightning2
Holland Park Hawks |3
Robina City1
Logan Lightning |0
Logan Lightning1
Capalaba |0
North Star1
Logan Lightning |3
St. George Willawong0
Logan Lightning |2
Logan Lightning0
Broadbeach Utd. |4
Sunshine Coast Wanderers5
Logan Lightning |2
Ipswich2
Logan Lightning |0
Logan Lightning2
Brisbane Strikers |4
Redlands
Holland Park Hawks1
Redlands |4
Redlands5
Ipswich |0
Redlands2
Sunshine Coast Wanderers |4
St. George Willawong0
Redlands |3
Broadbeach Utd.2
Redlands |0
Redlands1
Brisbane Strikers |1
Caboolture4
Redlands |2
Redlands2
Robina City |2
Capalaba2
Redlands |1
Redlands5
North Star |0
Logan Lightning (Home)
Logan Lightning1
Caboolture |3
Logan Lightning2
Holland Park Hawks |3
Logan Lightning1
Capalaba |0
Logan Lightning0
Broadbeach Utd. |4
Logan Lightning2
Brisbane Strikers |4
Logan Lightning1
Robina City |1
Logan Lightning4
North Star |0
Logan Lightning1
Brisbane Strikers |0
Logan Lightning2
Rochedale |1
Logan Lightning1
Broadbeach Utd. |1
Redlands (Away)
Holland Park Hawks1
Redlands |4
St. George Willawong0
Redlands |3
Broadbeach Utd.2
Redlands |0
Caboolture4
Redlands |2
Capalaba2
Redlands |1
Ipswich0
Redlands |1
Sunshine Coast Wanderers1
Redlands |1
Southside Eagles1
Redlands |5
Caboolture2
Redlands |7
Logan Lightning3
Redlands |1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Tuesday, 30th June 2026, Logan Lightning host Redlands at Cornubia Park (Logan) in Australia Queensland PL. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.
Logan Lightning arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Redlands are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 2D 4L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Logan Lightning, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Redlands's 1, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.42 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Australia Queensland PL match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 2.5 at @1.42, sitting at roughly 90% in our model. The match gets going at 11:30 am over at Cornubia Park (Logan).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Logan Lightning vs Redlands?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.42. Tip confidence rating: 87%.
What is Logan Lightning's current form?
Logan Lightning have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches.
How has Redlands been performing recently?
Redlands have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Logan Lightning lead with 4 wins versus Redlands's 1, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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