N
Narva
Home
L
D
L
W
L
2W 1D 7L
▼ Declining
VS
—
5:00 pm
—
Narva Kalev-Fama staadion (Narva)
L
Levadia
Away
L
D
W
W
W
8W 1D 1L
→ Steady
Implied Prob
68%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
0%
Fair price
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.47
Over 2.5 Goals65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Narva vs Levadia
Competition: Estonia Meistriliiga
Date: Saturday, 4th July 2026
KO: 5:00 pm
Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals)
Odds: 1.47
Confidence: 68%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Narva
2
Draws
7
Levadia
10
Meetings
2.5
Avg Goals
20%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Neutral
Over 2.5 in 50% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Narva
Metric
Levadia
1.2
Goals For / Game
2.9
1.5
Goals Against / Game
0.8
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
2-1-7
W — D — L
8-1-1
Win Rate
3.2
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
N0
0-0
4.1%
0-1
9.0%
0-2
9.9%
0-3
7.2%
0-4
4.0%
0-5
1.8%
N1
1-0
4.1%
1-1
9.0%
1-2
9.9%
1-3
7.2%
1-4
4.0%
1-5
1.8%
N2
2-0
2.0%
2-1
4.5%
2-2
4.9%
2-3
3.6%
2-4
2.0%
2-5
0.9%
N3
3-0
0.7%
3-1
1.5%
3-2
1.6%
3-3
1.2%
3-4
0.7%
3-5
0.3%
N4
4-0
0.2%
4-1
0.4%
4-2
0.4%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
N5
5-0
0.0%
5-1
0.1%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
0-2(9.9%)
1-2(9.9%)
0-1(9.0%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
N=Home goals ↓ L=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
7%
Home Win & BTTS No
11%
Draw & BTTS Yes
4%
Draw & BTTS No
5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
29%
Away Win & BTTS No
44%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
12%
Home Win & Under 2.5
6%
Draw & Over 2.5
6%
Draw & Under 2.5
3%
Away Win & Over 2.5
47%
Away Win & Under 2.5
26%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Levadia7
Narva0
Levadia0
Narva0
Narva0
Levadia4
Levadia3
Narva1
Levadia2
Narva1
Levadia1
Narva0
Narva0
Levadia1
Narva3
Levadia0
Narva0
Levadia2
Levadia0
Narva0
Recent Form
Narva
Tammeka1
Narva0
Kuressaare0
Narva0
Narva1
Nomme Utd2
Narva10
Vana Hea Puur0
Harju JK Laagri3
Narva0
Narva1
Paide0
Narva0
Flora3
Parnu JK Vaprus2
Narva0
Flora1
Narva0
Narva0
Kalju3
Levadia
Levadia1
Flora2
Levadia1
Kalju1
Nomme Utd1
Levadia2
Flora1
Levadia3
Tammeka0
Levadia1
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Levadia6
Paide1
Levadia3
Levadia3
Harju JK Laagri0
Kuressaare1
Levadia2
Levadia7
Narva0
Narva (Home)
Narva1
Nomme Utd2
Narva10
Vana Hea Puur0
Narva1
Paide0
Narva0
Flora3
Narva0
Kalju3
Narva1
Kuressaare2
Narva3
Tammeka0
Narva2
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Narva4
Viimsi JK3
Narva1
Harju JK Laagri2
Levadia (Away)
Nomme Utd1
Levadia2
Flora1
Levadia3
Tammeka0
Levadia1
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Levadia6
Paide1
Levadia3
Kuressaare1
Levadia2
Tammeka1
Levadia2
Kalju1
Levadia1
Harju JK Laagri1
Levadia3
Flora1
Levadia0
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Saturday, 4th July 2026, Narva host Levadia at Narva Kalev-Fama staadion (Narva) in Estonia Meistriliiga. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.
Narva arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Levadia are travelling well, with a record of 8W 1D 1L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Narva, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Levadia's 7, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.47 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Estonia Meistriliiga match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 2.5 at @1.47, sitting at roughly 80% in our model. The match gets going at 5:00 pm over at Narva Kalev-Fama staadion (Narva).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Narva vs Levadia?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.47. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Narva's current form?
Narva have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches.
How has Levadia been performing recently?
Levadia have recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Narva lead with 1 wins versus Levadia's 7, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.
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