S
San Lorenzo W
Home
W
D
W
W
W
8W 1D 1L
▲ Improving
VS
—
7:00 pm
—
Ciudad Deportiva de San Lorenzo de Almagro (Bajo Flores) (Buenos Aires)
I
Independiente W
Away
L
L
L
W
W
3W 1D 6L
▼ Declining
San Lorenzo W
50%
Draw
30%
Independiente W
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
84%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-29%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — San Lorenzo W to win
1.19
BTTS — No75%
San Lorenzo W Clean Sheet70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
San Lorenzo W vs Independiente W
Competition: Argentina Primera Women
Date: Saturday, 4th July 2026
KO: 7:00 pm
Pick: 1 (San Lorenzo W to win)
Odds: 1.19
Confidence: 55%
Also: BTTS — No (75%)
Also: San Lorenzo W Clean Sheet (70%)
Head to Head
Record
2
San Lorenzo W
2
Draws
2
Independiente W
6
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Against Tip
San Lorenzo W won 2 of the last 6 meetings (2 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
San Lorenzo W
Metric
Independiente W
2.1
Goals For / Game
0.7
0.3
Goals Against / Game
1.6
70%
Clean Sheets
30%
8-1-1
W — D — L
3-1-6
Win Rate
2.4
Avg Goals
45%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
25%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
I0
I1
I2
I3
I4
I5
S0
0-0
9.5%
0-1
4.8%
0-2
1.2%
0-3
0.2%
0-4
0.0%
0-5
0.0%
S1
1-0
17.6%
1-1
8.8%
1-2
2.2%
1-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
1-5
0.0%
S2
2-0
16.3%
2-1
8.2%
2-2
2.0%
2-3
0.3%
2-4
0.0%
2-5
0.0%
S3
3-0
10.1%
3-1
5.0%
3-2
1.3%
3-3
0.2%
3-4
0.0%
3-5
0.0%
S4
4-0
4.7%
4-1
2.3%
4-2
0.6%
4-3
0.1%
4-4
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
S5
5-0
1.7%
5-1
0.9%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(17.6%)
2-0(16.3%)
3-0(10.1%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
S=Home goals ↓ I=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
San Lorenzo W Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Independiente W Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
17%
Home Win & BTTS No
50%
Draw & BTTS Yes
2%
Draw & BTTS No
6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
6%
Away Win & BTTS No
19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
27%
Home Win & Under 2.5
40%
Draw & Over 2.5
3%
Draw & Under 2.5
5%
Away Win & Over 2.5
10%
Away Win & Under 2.5
15%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
San Lorenzo1
Independiente1
Independiente0
San Lorenzo1
San Lorenzo0
Independiente1
San Lorenzo2
Independiente2
San Lorenzo1
Independiente4
Independiente1
San Lorenzo2
Recent Form
San Lorenzo W
Huracan0
San Lorenzo1
San Lorenzo0
Belgrano0
River Plate0
San Lorenzo1
San Lorenzo3
Banfield0
Gimnasia L.P.1
San Lorenzo4
San Lorenzo5
Newells Old Boys0
Racing Club1
San Lorenzo0
San Lorenzo3
Social Atletico Television1
San Lorenzo3
Talleres Cordoba0
Ferro0
San Lorenzo1
Independiente W
Independiente1
Talleres Cordoba3
Ferro6
Independiente1
Independiente0
Boca Juniors1
Lanus0
Independiente1
Independiente1
San Luis0
Union de Santa Fe2
Independiente2
Social Atletico Television0
Independiente1
Independiente0
Huracan1
Belgrano1
Independiente0
Independiente0
River Plate2
San Lorenzo W (Home)
San Lorenzo0
Belgrano0
San Lorenzo3
Banfield0
San Lorenzo5
Newells Old Boys0
San Lorenzo3
Social Atletico Television1
San Lorenzo3
Talleres Cordoba0
San Lorenzo1
Boca Juniors1
San Lorenzo0
Racing Club1
San Lorenzo0
Colo-Colo1
San Lorenzo1
Olimpia Asuncion0
San Lorenzo0
River Plate0
Independiente W (Away)
Ferro6
Independiente1
Lanus0
Independiente1
Union de Santa Fe2
Independiente2
Social Atletico Television0
Independiente1
Belgrano1
Independiente0
Banfield2
Independiente1
Ferro3
Independiente1
San Luis5
Independiente0
Platense0
Independiente0
Boca Juniors0
Independiente0
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Saturday, 4th July 2026, San Lorenzo W host Independiente W at Ciudad Deportiva de San Lorenzo de Almagro (Bajo Flores) (Buenos Aires) in Argentina Primera Women. We recommend San Lorenzo W to win as the standout selection.
San Lorenzo W arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Independiente W are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 1D 6L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour San Lorenzo W, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Independiente W's 2, with 2 draws from 6 encounters. Both teams have scored in 67% of those meetings.
Our verdict: san lorenzo w to win at odds of 1.19 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Argentina Primera Women match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.19, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 7:00 pm over at Ciudad Deportiva de San Lorenzo de Almagro (Bajo Flores) (Buenos Aires).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for San Lorenzo W vs Independiente W?
Our selection is 1 — San Lorenzo W to win, priced at approximately 1.19. Tip confidence rating: 55%.
What is San Lorenzo W's current form?
San Lorenzo W have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Independiente W been performing recently?
Independiente W have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
San Lorenzo W lead with 2 wins versus Independiente W's 2, with 2 draws across 6 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
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