C
CSKA Sofia
Home
W
W
L
W
L
5W 1D 3L
▲ Improving
VS
—
7:00 pm
—
National Stadium Vasil Levski (Sofia)
D
Derry City
Away
L
W
D
L
W
2W 4D 4L
▼ Declining
CSKA Sofia
50%
Draw
30%
Derry City
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
80.6%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-28.6%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
1
CSKA Sofia
1
Draws
0
Derry City
2
Meetings
1.5
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Neutral
CSKA Sofia won 1 of the last 2 meetings (1 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
CSKA Sofia
Metric
Derry City
1.2
Goals For / Game
1.3
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.3
33%
Clean Sheets
30%
5-1-3
W — D — L
2-4-4
Win Rate
2.5
Avg Goals
68%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
47%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
D0
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
C0
0-0
8.2%
0-1
10.3%
0-2
6.4%
0-3
2.7%
0-4
0.8%
0-5
0.2%
C1
1-0
10.3%
1-1
12.8%
1-2
8.0%
1-3
3.3%
1-4
1.0%
1-5
0.3%
C2
2-0
6.4%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
5.0%
2-3
2.1%
2-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
C3
3-0
2.7%
3-1
3.3%
3-2
2.1%
3-3
0.9%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
C4
4-0
0.8%
4-1
1.0%
4-2
0.7%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
C5
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(10.3%)
2-1(8.0%)
2-0(6.4%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
C=Home goals ↓ D=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
CSKA Sofia Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Derry City Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
26%
Home Win & BTTS No
29%
Draw & BTTS Yes
12%
Draw & BTTS No
13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
9%
Away Win & BTTS No
11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
26%
Home Win & Under 2.5
29%
Draw & Over 2.5
12%
Draw & Under 2.5
13%
Away Win & Over 2.5
9%
Away Win & Under 2.5
11%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Derry City1
CSKA Sofia1
CSKA Sofia1
Derry City0
Recent Form
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia3
Marek0
Odra Opole2
CSKA Sofia3
CSKA Sofia0
Polissya Zhytomyr4
Grosuplje1
CSKA Sofia2
Ludogorets1
CSKA Sofia0
Levski Sofia2
CSKA Sofia0
CSKA Sofia1
CSKA 1948 Sofia1
CSKA 1948 Sofia0
CSKA Sofia1
CSKA Sofia1
Ludogorets0
Derry City
Derry City2
Waterford4
Derry City2
Drogheda0
Shamrock Rovers1
Derry City1
Galway2
Derry City1
Derry City4
Bohemians1
Dundalk2
Derry City1
Derry City0
Shelbourne0
Derry City0
St. Patricks0
Waterford2
Derry City2
Drogheda1
Derry City0
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Thursday, 9th July 2026, CSKA Sofia host Derry City at National Stadium Vasil Levski (Sofia) in Europa League Qualifier. We recommend CSKA Sofia to win as the standout selection.
CSKA Sofia arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from their last 9 outings.
Derry City are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 4D 4L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour CSKA Sofia, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Derry City's 0, with 1 draws from 2 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.
Our verdict: cska sofia to win at odds of 1.24 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Europa League Qualifier match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.24, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 7:00 pm over at National Stadium Vasil Levski (Sofia).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for CSKA Sofia vs Derry City?
Our selection is 1 — CSKA Sofia to win, priced at approximately 1.24. Tip confidence rating: 52%.
What is CSKA Sofia's current form?
CSKA Sofia have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 9 matches.
How has Derry City been performing recently?
Derry City have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
CSKA Sofia lead with 1 wins versus Derry City's 0, with 1 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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