M
Musa
Home
L
D
W
D
L
1W 3D 6L
โ Steady
VS
โ
5:00 pm
โ
Porin Stadion (Pori)
G
Grlfk
Away
W
W
D
D
L
4W 3D 3L
โฒ Improving
Implied Prob
70.9%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+1.1%
Value detected
Kelly %
3.7%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 โ over 2.5 goals
1.41
Under 2.5 Goals70%
BTTS โ No70%
๐ Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Musa vs Grlfk
Competition: Finland Kakkonen C
Date: Thursday, 9th July 2026
KO: 5:00 pm
Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals)
Odds: 1.41
Confidence: 72%
Also: Under 2.5 Goals (70%)
Also: BTTS โ No (70%)
Head to Head
Record
2
Musa
8
Draws
0
Grlfk
10
Meetings
3.8
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 2.5 in 70% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Musa
Metric
Grlfk
1.2
Goals For / Game
0
3.2
Goals Against / Game
0
20%
Clean Sheets
0%
1-3-6
W โ D โ L
4-3-3
Win Rate
2.2
Avg Goals
45%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
M0
0-0
11.1%
0-1
17.7%
0-2
14.2%
0-3
7.6%
0-4
3.0%
0-5
1.0%
M1
1-0
6.7%
1-1
10.6%
1-2
8.5%
1-3
4.5%
1-4
1.8%
1-5
0.6%
M2
2-0
2.0%
2-1
3.2%
2-2
2.6%
2-3
1.4%
2-4
0.5%
2-5
0.2%
M3
3-0
0.4%
3-1
0.6%
3-2
0.5%
3-3
0.3%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
M4
4-0
0.1%
4-1
0.1%
4-2
0.1%
4-3
0.0%
4-4
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
M5
5-0
0.0%
5-1
0.0%
5-2
0.0%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
0-1(17.7%)
0-2(14.2%)
0-0(11.1%)
โ Best match
โ Possible
โ Low ยท โ Contradicts tip
M=Home goals โ G=Away โ
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
4%
Home Win & BTTS No
9%
Draw & BTTS Yes
11%
Draw & BTTS No
27%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
15%
Away Win & BTTS No
34%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
4%
Home Win & Under 2.5
9%
Draw & Over 2.5
11%
Draw & Under 2.5
27%
Away Win & Over 2.5
15%
Away Win & Under 2.5
34%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
โ
Kelly %
โ
Stake
โ
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
GrIFK1
MuSa1
GrIFK3
MuSa2
GrIFK1
MuSa2
MuSa2
GrIFK2
GrIFK3
MuSa0
MuSa1
GrIFK4
MuSa1
GrIFK1
GrIFK2
MuSa0
GrIFK2
MuSa4
GrIFK6
MuSa0
Recent Form
Musa
Honka7
MuSa1
MuSa2
P-Iirot Rauma2
EBK0
MuSa2
MuSa0
NJS0
Abo4
MuSa2
MuSa3
Ilves 24
EPS6
MuSa1
MuSa0
HJS2
GrIFK1
MuSa1
MuSa0
Honka6
Grlfk
GrIFK2
NJS0
EPS1
GrIFK3
GrIFK2
HJS2
GrIFK1
P-Iirot Rauma1
EBK1
GrIFK0
GrIFK1
Honka5
Abo3
GrIFK1
GrIFK1
MuSa1
NJS0
GrIFK1
GrIFK1
EPS0
Musa (Home)
MuSa2
P-Iirot Rauma2
MuSa0
NJS0
MuSa3
Ilves 24
MuSa0
HJS2
MuSa0
Honka6
MuSa1
PPJ0
MuSa2
NJS1
MuSa4
Atlantis 20
MuSa1
NJS5
MuSa10
Atlantis 20
Grlfk (Away)
MuSa2
P-Iirot Rauma2
MuSa0
NJS0
MuSa3
Ilves 24
MuSa0
HJS2
MuSa0
Honka6
MuSa1
PPJ0
MuSa2
NJS1
MuSa4
Atlantis 20
MuSa1
NJS5
MuSa10
Atlantis 20
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Thursday, 9th July 2026, Musa host Grlfk at Porin Stadion (Pori) in Finland Kakkonen C. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.
Musa arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Grlfk are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 3D 3L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Musa, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Grlfk's 0, with 8 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.41 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Finland Kakkonen C match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 2.5 at @1.41, sitting at roughly 90% in our model. The match gets going at 5:00 pm over at Porin Stadion (Pori).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today โ but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Musa vs Grlfk?
Our selection is Over 2.5 โ over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.41. Tip confidence rating: 72%.
What is Musa's current form?
Musa have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches.
How has Grlfk been performing recently?
Grlfk have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Musa lead with 2 wins versus Grlfk's 0, with 8 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
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