F
France
Home
W
W
W
W
W
9W 0D 1L
▲ Improving
VS
—
9:00 pm
—
Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
M
Morocco
Away
W
W
W
W
D
6W 3D 0L
▲ Improving
Implied Prob
76.9%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+10.1%
Value detected
Kelly %
43.7%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.30
Over 2.5 Goals74%
Over 1.5 Goals89%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
France vs Morocco
Competition: World Cup 2026
Date: Thursday, 9th July 2026
KO: 9:00 pm
Pick: Over 1.5 (over 1.5 goals)
Odds: 1.30
Confidence: 87%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (74%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (89%)
Head to Head
Record
3
France
2
Draws
0
Morocco
5
Meetings
3.4
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 1.5 in 80% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
France
Metric
Morocco
2.6
Goals For / Game
2.4
0.8
Goals Against / Game
0.7
30%
Clean Sheets
44%
9-0-1
W — D — L
6-3-0
Win Rate
3.3
Avg Goals
89%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
63%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
F0
0-0
3.9%
0-1
6.2%
0-2
5.0%
0-3
2.7%
0-4
1.1%
0-5
0.3%
F1
1-0
6.4%
1-1
10.2%
1-2
8.2%
1-3
4.4%
1-4
1.8%
1-5
0.6%
F2
2-0
5.3%
2-1
8.5%
2-2
6.8%
2-3
3.6%
2-4
1.4%
2-5
0.5%
F3
3-0
2.9%
3-1
4.6%
3-2
3.7%
3-3
2.0%
3-4
0.8%
3-5
0.3%
F4
4-0
1.2%
4-1
1.9%
4-2
1.5%
4-3
0.8%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
F5
5-0
0.4%
5-1
0.6%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-1(10.2%)
2-1(8.5%)
1-2(8.2%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
F=Home goals ↓ M=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
33%
Home Win & BTTS No
19%
Draw & BTTS Yes
6%
Draw & BTTS No
3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
25%
Away Win & BTTS No
14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
38%
Home Win & Under 2.5
14%
Draw & Over 2.5
7%
Draw & Under 2.5
2%
Away Win & Over 2.5
29%
Away Win & Under 2.5
10%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
France2
Morocco0
France2
Morocco2
Morocco1
France5
France1
Morocco0
Morocco2
France2
Recent Form
France
Paraguay0
France1
France3
Sweden0
Norway1
France4
France3
Iraq0
France3
Senegal1
France3
Northern Ireland1
France1
Ivory Coast2
Colombia1
France3
Brazil1
France2
Azerbaijan1
France3
Morocco
Canada0
Morocco3
Morocco4
Haiti2
Scotland0
Morocco1
Brazil1
Morocco1
Morocco1
Norway1
Morocco4
Madagascar0
Morocco5
Burundi0
Morocco2
Paraguay1
Morocco1
Ecuador1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Thursday, 9th July 2026, France host Morocco at Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA) in World Cup 2026. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.
France arrive in strong form, having recorded 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Morocco are travelling well, with a record of 6W 3D 0L across 9 matches.
Historical meetings favour France, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Morocco's 0, with 2 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.30 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this World Cup 2026 match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 5 wins from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 1.5 at @1.30, sitting at roughly 90% in our model. The match gets going at 9:00 pm over at Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for France vs Morocco?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 87%.
What is France's current form?
France have won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Morocco been performing recently?
Morocco have recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from 9 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
France lead with 3 wins versus Morocco's 0, with 2 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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