C
Chengdu Rongcheng
Home
D
W
W
W
L
7W 1D 2L
▲ Improving
VS
—
1:00 pm
—
Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park (Chengdu)
C
Chongqing Tonglianglong
Away
L
W
W
L
W
3W 3D 4L
▼ Declining
Chengdu Rongcheng
50%
Draw
30%
Chongqing Tonglianglong
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
72.5%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-24.5%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
0
Chengdu Rongcheng
2
Draws
0
Chongqing Tonglianglong
2
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Against Tip
Chengdu Rongcheng won 0 of the last 2 meetings (2 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Chengdu Rongcheng
Metric
Chongqing Tonglianglong
1.8
Goals For / Game
1.1
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.3
40%
Clean Sheets
40%
7-1-2
W — D — L
3-3-4
Win Rate
2.6
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
C0
0-0
7.8%
0-1
7.8%
0-2
3.9%
0-3
1.3%
0-4
0.3%
0-5
0.1%
C1
1-0
12.1%
1-1
12.1%
1-2
6.1%
1-3
2.0%
1-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
C2
2-0
9.4%
2-1
9.4%
2-2
4.7%
2-3
1.6%
2-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
C3
3-0
4.9%
3-1
4.9%
3-2
2.4%
3-3
0.8%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.0%
C4
4-0
1.9%
4-1
1.9%
4-2
0.9%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
C5
5-0
0.6%
5-1
0.6%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(12.1%)
2-0(9.4%)
2-1(9.4%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
C=Home goals ↓ C=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Chengdu Rongcheng Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Chongqing Tonglianglong Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
26%
Home Win & BTTS No
32%
Draw & BTTS Yes
8%
Draw & BTTS No
9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
11%
Away Win & BTTS No
14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
26%
Home Win & Under 2.5
32%
Draw & Over 2.5
8%
Draw & Under 2.5
9%
Away Win & Over 2.5
11%
Away Win & Under 2.5
14%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Chongqing Tonglianglong3
Chengdu Rongcheng3
Chongqing Tonglianglong0
Chengdu Rongcheng (Pen 4 - 2)0
Recent Form
Chengdu Rongcheng
Qingdao Hainiu1
Chengdu Rongcheng1
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng2
Chengdu Rongcheng3
Shanghai Zetian0
Chengdu Rongcheng4
Chengdu Rongcheng1
Shandong Taishan0
Dalian Yingbo2
Chengdu Rongcheng0
Chengdu Rongcheng0
Shanghai Port1
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger1
Chengdu Rongcheng2
Chengdu Rongcheng3
Henan Songshan Longmen0
Liaoning Tieren0
Chengdu Rongcheng1
Shanghai Shenhua2
Chengdu Rongcheng3
Chongqing Tonglianglong
Liaoning Tieren3
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger0
Ningbo Professional0
Chongqing Tonglianglong2
Chongqing Tonglianglong2
Beijing Guoan3
Qingdao Hainiu0
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
Chongqing Tonglianglong0
Yunnan Yukun0
Shandong Taishan3
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
Shanghai Shenhua2
Chongqing Tonglianglong2
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
Henan Songshan Longmen1
Dalian Yingbo1
Chongqing Tonglianglong0
Chengdu Rongcheng (Home)
Chengdu Rongcheng1
Shandong Taishan0
Chengdu Rongcheng0
Shanghai Port1
Chengdu Rongcheng3
Henan Songshan Longmen0
Chengdu Rongcheng4
Zhejiang Professional0
Chengdu Rongcheng2
Yunnan Yukun1
Chengdu Rongcheng5
Qingdao West Coast1
Chengdu Rongcheng1
Qingdao Hainiu0
Chengdu Rongcheng5
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1
Chengdu Rongcheng0
Buriram1
Chengdu Rongcheng1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima1
Chongqing Tonglianglong (Away)
Liaoning Tieren3
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
Ningbo Professional0
Chongqing Tonglianglong2
Qingdao Hainiu0
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
Shandong Taishan3
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
Shanghai Shenhua2
Chongqing Tonglianglong2
Dalian Yingbo1
Chongqing Tonglianglong0
Shanghai Port1
Chongqing Tonglianglong2
Zhejiang Professional0
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger0
Chongqing Tonglianglong0
Shanghai Jiading Huilong0
Chongqing Tonglianglong2
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Saturday, 11th July 2026, Chengdu Rongcheng host Chongqing Tonglianglong at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park (Chengdu) in China Super League. We recommend Chengdu Rongcheng to win as the standout selection.
Chengdu Rongcheng arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Chongqing Tonglianglong are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 3D 4L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Chengdu Rongcheng, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Chongqing Tonglianglong's 0, with 2 draws from 2 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.
Our verdict: chengdu rongcheng to win at odds of 1.38 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this China Super League match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.38, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 1:00 pm over at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park (Chengdu).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Chengdu Rongcheng vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
Our selection is 1 — Chengdu Rongcheng to win, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 48%.
What is Chengdu Rongcheng's current form?
Chengdu Rongcheng have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Chongqing Tonglianglong been performing recently?
Chongqing Tonglianglong have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Chengdu Rongcheng lead with 0 wins versus Chongqing Tonglianglong's 0, with 2 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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