U
Univ Craiova
Home
W
W
W
D
D
5W 3D 0L
▲ Improving
VS
—
6:30 pm
—
Stadionul Ion Oblemenco (Craiova)
M
ML Vitebsk
Away
L
W
W
D
W
7W 2D 1L
▼ Declining
Univ Craiova
50%
Draw
30%
ML Vitebsk
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
78.1%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-15.1%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Univ Craiova to win
1.28
Over 2.5 Goals72%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Univ Craiova vs ML Vitebsk
Competition: UCL Qualifiers
Date: Wednesday, 15th July 2026
KO: 6:30 pm
Pick: 1 (Univ Craiova to win)
Odds: 1.28
Confidence: 63%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (72%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Univ Craiova
0
Draws
0
ML Vitebsk
1
Meetings
5
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Univ Craiova won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Univ Craiova
Metric
ML Vitebsk
2.1
Goals For / Game
2.6
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.5
50%
Clean Sheets
20%
5-3-0
W — D — L
7-2-1
Win Rate
3.6
Avg Goals
78%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
U0
0-0
3.0%
0-1
5.1%
0-2
4.4%
0-3
2.5%
0-4
1.1%
0-5
0.4%
U1
1-0
5.4%
1-1
9.2%
1-2
7.9%
1-3
4.5%
1-4
1.9%
1-5
0.6%
U2
2-0
4.9%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
7.1%
2-3
4.0%
2-4
1.7%
2-5
0.6%
U3
3-0
2.9%
3-1
5.0%
3-2
4.2%
3-3
2.4%
3-4
1.0%
3-5
0.4%
U4
4-0
1.3%
4-1
2.3%
4-2
1.9%
4-3
1.1%
4-4
0.5%
4-5
0.2%
U5
5-0
0.5%
5-1
0.8%
5-2
0.7%
5-3
0.4%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.1%
Top Scores
2-1(8.3%)
1-0(5.4%)
3-1(5.0%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
U=Home goals ↓ M=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Univ Craiova Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
ML Vitebsk Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
26%
Home Win & BTTS No
13%
Draw & BTTS Yes
11%
Draw & BTTS No
6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
29%
Away Win & BTTS No
15%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
28%
Home Win & Under 2.5
11%
Draw & Over 2.5
12%
Draw & Under 2.5
5%
Away Win & Over 2.5
32%
Away Win & Under 2.5
12%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
ML Vitebsk1
Univ. Craiova4
Recent Form
Univ Craiova
ML Vitebsk1
Univ. Craiova4
Univ. Craiova4
Polissya Zhytomyr3
Univ. Craiova1
Sabah Baku1
FC Rapid Bucuresti0
Univ. Craiova0
Univ. Craiova5
U. Cluj0
CFR Cluj0
Univ. Craiova0
Univ. Craiova2
Dinamo Bucuresti1
FC Arges0
Univ. Craiova1
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk1
Univ. Craiova4
Slavia Mozyr2
ML Vitebsk4
ML Vitebsk2
Naftan1
FC Minsk2
ML Vitebsk2
SKA-19383
ML Vitebsk (AET)5
ML Vitebsk1
Vitebsk2
Neman1
ML Vitebsk2
ML Vitebsk0
FC Gomel0
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk0
ML Vitebsk3
ML Vitebsk5
Dnepr Mogilev1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Wednesday, 15th July 2026, Univ Craiova host ML Vitebsk at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco (Craiova) in UCL Qualifiers. We recommend Univ Craiova to win as the standout selection.
Univ Craiova arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 8 outings.
ML Vitebsk are travelling well, with a record of 7W 2D 1L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Univ Craiova, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to ML Vitebsk's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.
Our verdict: univ craiova to win at odds of 1.28 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this UCL Qualifiers match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.28, sitting at roughly 90% in our model. The match gets going at 6:30 pm over at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco (Craiova).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Univ Craiova vs ML Vitebsk?
Our selection is 1 — Univ Craiova to win, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Univ Craiova's current form?
Univ Craiova have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 8 matches.
How has ML Vitebsk been performing recently?
ML Vitebsk have recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Univ Craiova lead with 1 wins versus ML Vitebsk's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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