Z
Zalgiris
Home
W
W
D
L
W
5W 2D 3L
▼ Declining
VS
—
6:00 pm
—
LFF stadionas (Vilnius)
P
Petrovac
Away
L
D
L
D
L
1W 5D 4L
▲ Improving
Zalgiris
50%
Draw
30%
Petrovac
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
70.4%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-11.4%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
1
Zalgiris
0
Draws
0
Petrovac
1
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Zalgiris won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Zalgiris
Metric
Petrovac
1.5
Goals For / Game
0.6
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1
40%
Clean Sheets
30%
5-2-3
W — D — L
1-5-4
Win Rate
2.1
Avg Goals
60%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
Z0
0-0
12.3%
0-1
10.4%
0-2
4.4%
0-3
1.3%
0-4
0.3%
0-5
0.1%
Z1
1-0
15.3%
1-1
13.0%
1-2
5.5%
1-3
1.6%
1-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
Z2
2-0
9.6%
2-1
8.1%
2-2
3.5%
2-3
1.0%
2-4
0.2%
2-5
0.0%
Z3
3-0
4.0%
3-1
3.4%
3-2
1.4%
3-3
0.4%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
Z4
4-0
1.3%
4-1
1.1%
4-2
0.5%
4-3
0.1%
4-4
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
Z5
5-0
0.3%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(15.3%)
2-0(9.6%)
2-1(8.1%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
Z=Home goals ↓ P=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Zalgiris Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Petrovac Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
24%
Home Win & BTTS No
29%
Draw & BTTS Yes
17%
Draw & BTTS No
20%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
5%
Away Win & BTTS No
6%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
21%
Home Win & Under 2.5
32%
Draw & Over 2.5
15%
Draw & Under 2.5
22%
Away Win & Over 2.5
4%
Away Win & Under 2.5
6%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Petrovac1
Zalgiris3
Recent Form
Zalgiris
Petrovac1
Zalgiris3
FA Siauliai0
Zalgiris3
Dziugas Telsiai0
Zalgiris0
Banga3
Zalgiris0
Zalgiris3
FK Panevezys0
Zalgiris3
Riteriai2
Kauno Zalgiris0
Zalgiris1
Zalgiris1
Hegelmann3
Transinvest1
Zalgiris0
Suduva1
Zalgiris1
Petrovac
Petrovac1
Zalgiris3
Mornar Bar0
Petrovac0
AF Elbasani2
Petrovac1
Macva0
Petrovac0
Mladost1
Petrovac0
Petrovac1
Buducnost1
Mornar Bar1
Petrovac1
Petrovac1
Jedinstvo0
Mladost DG1
Petrovac0
Petrovac1
Decic1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Thursday, 16th July 2026, Zalgiris host Petrovac at LFF stadionas (Vilnius) in Conference League Qualifier. We recommend Zalgiris to win as the standout selection.
Zalgiris arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Petrovac are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 5D 4L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Zalgiris, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Petrovac's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.
Our verdict: zalgiris to win at odds of 1.42 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Conference League Qualifier match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 draws, 3 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.42, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 6:00 pm over at LFF stadionas (Vilnius).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Zalgiris vs Petrovac?
Our selection is 1 — Zalgiris to win, priced at approximately 1.42. Tip confidence rating: 59%.
What is Zalgiris's current form?
Zalgiris have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Petrovac been performing recently?
Petrovac have recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Zalgiris lead with 1 wins versus Petrovac's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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