B
Beijing Guoan
Home
W
W
W
W
L
6W 3D 1L
โ Steady
VS
โ
12:35 pm
โ
Workers' Stadium (Beijing)
L
Liaoning Tieren
Away
W
L
L
W
W
4W 1D 5L
โผ Declining
Beijing Guoan
50%
Draw
30%
Liaoning Tieren
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
72.5%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-27.5%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 โ Beijing Guoan to win
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals75%
Over 1.5 Goals85%
๐ Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Beijing Guoan vs Liaoning Tieren
Competition: China Super League
Date: Friday, 17th July 2026
KO: 12:35 pm
Pick: 1 (Beijing Guoan to win)
Odds: 1.38
Confidence: 45%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (75%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
0
Beijing Guoan
0
Draws
1
Liaoning Tieren
1
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Against Tip
Beijing Guoan won 0 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Beijing Guoan
Metric
Liaoning Tieren
2.2
Goals For / Game
1.7
1.3
Goals Against / Game
1.9
30%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-3-1
W โ D โ L
4-1-5
Win Rate
3.6
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
B0
0-0
2.9%
0-1
4.3%
0-2
3.2%
0-3
1.6%
0-4
0.6%
0-5
0.2%
B1
1-0
5.9%
1-1
8.8%
1-2
6.6%
1-3
3.3%
1-4
1.2%
1-5
0.4%
B2
2-0
6.0%
2-1
9.1%
2-2
6.8%
2-3
3.4%
2-4
1.3%
2-5
0.4%
B3
3-0
4.1%
3-1
6.2%
3-2
4.6%
3-3
2.3%
3-4
0.9%
3-5
0.3%
B4
4-0
2.1%
4-1
3.2%
4-2
2.4%
4-3
1.2%
4-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
B5
5-0
0.9%
5-1
1.3%
5-2
1.0%
5-3
0.5%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.1%
Top Scores
2-1(9.1%)
3-1(6.2%)
2-0(6.0%)
โ Best match
โ Possible
โ Low ยท โ Contradicts tip
B=Home goals โ L=Away โ
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Beijing Guoan Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Liaoning Tieren Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
33%
Home Win & BTTS No
18%
Draw & BTTS Yes
11%
Draw & BTTS No
6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
21%
Away Win & BTTS No
12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
38%
Home Win & Under 2.5
13%
Draw & Over 2.5
13%
Draw & Under 2.5
4%
Away Win & Over 2.5
25%
Away Win & Under 2.5
8%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
โ
Kelly %
โ
Stake
โ
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Liaoning Tieren2
Beijing Guoan1
Recent Form
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan2
Shandong Taishan0
Beijing Guoan1
Wuhan Three Towns0
Guangdong GZ-Power1
Beijing Guoan2
Chongqing Tonglianglong2
Beijing Guoan3
Beijing Guoan1
Henan Songshan Longmen2
Qingdao West Coast1
Beijing Guoan1
Beijing Guoan4
Qingdao Hainiu2
Beijing Guoan2
Shanghai Port2
Beijing Guoan3
Dalian Yingbo0
Yunnan Yukun3
Beijing Guoan3
Liaoning Tieren
Liaoning Tieren3
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
Liaoning Tieren1
Shandong Taishan5
Dalian Kewei1
Liaoning Tieren0
Liaoning Tieren3
Shanghai Port2
Zhejiang Professional0
Liaoning Tieren5
Liaoning Tieren2
Qingdao Hainiu1
Wuhan Three Towns2
Liaoning Tieren2
Liaoning Tieren1
Yunnan Yukun2
Liaoning Tieren0
Chengdu Rongcheng1
Henan Songshan Longmen4
Liaoning Tieren0
Beijing Guoan (Home)
Beijing Guoan2
Shandong Taishan0
Beijing Guoan1
Wuhan Three Towns0
Beijing Guoan1
Henan Songshan Longmen2
Beijing Guoan4
Qingdao Hainiu2
Beijing Guoan2
Shanghai Port2
Beijing Guoan3
Dalian Yingbo0
Beijing Guoan2
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger4
Beijing Guoan1
Chengdu Rongcheng2
Beijing Guoan1
Shanghai Shenhua1
Beijing Guoan1
Macarthur FC2
Liaoning Tieren (Away)
Dalian Kewei1
Liaoning Tieren0
Zhejiang Professional0
Liaoning Tieren5
Wuhan Three Towns2
Liaoning Tieren2
Henan Songshan Longmen4
Liaoning Tieren0
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1
Liaoning Tieren0
Shanghai Shenhua3
Liaoning Tieren1
Qingdao West Coast1
Liaoning Tieren1
Chongqing Tonglianglong1
Liaoning Tieren0
Shandong Taishan3
Liaoning Tieren0
Nanjing City1
Liaoning Tieren1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Friday, 17th July 2026, Beijing Guoan host Liaoning Tieren at Workers' Stadium (Beijing) in China Super League. We recommend Beijing Guoan to win as the standout selection.
Beijing Guoan arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Liaoning Tieren are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 1D 5L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Beijing Guoan, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Liaoning Tieren's 1, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.
Our verdict: beijing guoan to win at odds of 1.38 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this China Super League match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.38, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 12:35 pm over at Workers’ Stadium (Beijing).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today โ but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Beijing Guoan vs Liaoning Tieren?
Our selection is 1 โ Beijing Guoan to win, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 45%.
What is Beijing Guoan's current form?
Beijing Guoan have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Liaoning Tieren been performing recently?
Liaoning Tieren have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Beijing Guoan lead with 0 wins versus Liaoning Tieren's 1, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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