M
Marupe
Home
L
W
L
W
L
6W 0D 4L
▲ Improving
VS
—
1:00 pm
—
N/A
M
Metta
Away
W
W
W
W
W
8W 1D 1L
→ Steady
Marupe
20%
Draw
30%
Metta
50%
H Fair Odds
5
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
2
Implied Prob
83.3%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-15.3%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Metta to win
1.20
Over 2.5 Goals80%
Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Marupe vs Metta
Competition: Latvia Nakotnes liga
Date: Saturday, 18th July 2026
KO: 1:00 pm
Pick: 2 (Metta to win)
Odds: 1.20
Confidence: 68%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
0
Marupe
0
Draws
2
Metta
2
Meetings
5
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Metta won 2 of 2 meetings.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Marupe
Metric
Metta
1.7
Goals For / Game
3.5
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.1
20%
Clean Sheets
30%
6-0-4
W — D — L
8-1-1
Win Rate
3.9
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M0
0-0
2.1%
0-1
5.2%
0-2
6.4%
0-3
5.2%
0-4
3.2%
0-5
1.6%
M1
1-0
3.0%
1-1
7.3%
1-2
8.9%
1-3
7.3%
1-4
4.5%
1-5
2.2%
M2
2-0
2.1%
2-1
5.1%
2-2
6.3%
2-3
5.1%
2-4
3.1%
2-5
1.5%
M3
3-0
1.0%
3-1
2.4%
3-2
2.9%
3-3
2.4%
3-4
1.5%
3-5
0.7%
M4
4-0
0.3%
4-1
0.8%
4-2
1.0%
4-3
0.8%
4-4
0.5%
4-5
0.3%
M5
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.2%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.1%
Top Scores
1-2(8.9%)
1-3(7.3%)
0-2(6.4%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
M=Home goals ↓ M=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Marupe Win
5
20%
Draw
3.33
30%
Metta Win
2
50%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
27%
Home Win & BTTS No
14%
Draw & BTTS Yes
2%
Draw & BTTS No
1%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
36%
Away Win & BTTS No
20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
33%
Home Win & Under 2.5
8%
Draw & Over 2.5
2%
Draw & Under 2.5
1%
Away Win & Over 2.5
45%
Away Win & Under 2.5
11%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Marupe1
Metta4
Metta4
Marupe1
Recent Form
Marupe
Marupe0
Grobina1
Marupe2
FK Smiltene1
Riga Mariners2
Marupe0
Marupe4
Aliance (AET)2
Marupe1
JFK Ventspils2
JFC Viola1
Marupe2
Marupe1
RFS 24
Riga FC 20
Marupe4
Tukums 2000 21
Marupe2
Super Nova 20
Marupe1
Metta
Metta3
Speks1
Metta3
Skanste1
Leevon PPK1
Metta3
Metta5
Kekava-Auda0
Metta7
Super Nova 23
Lielupe0
Metta6
Riga Mariners2
Metta2
Metta4
Alberts JDFS1
JFK Ventspils0
Metta1
Metta1
Valmiera2
Marupe (Home)
Marupe0
Grobina1
Marupe2
FK Smiltene1
Marupe4
Aliance (AET)2
Marupe1
JFK Ventspils2
Marupe1
RFS 24
Marupe2
Valmiera3
Marupe4
Skanste0
Marupe4
Rezekne0
Marupe0
Ogre United1
Marupe5
AFA Olaine1
Metta (Away)
Leevon PPK1
Metta3
Lielupe0
Metta6
Riga Mariners2
Metta2
JFK Ventspils0
Metta1
RFS 20
Metta3
Tukums 2000 21
Metta3
Tartu Welco0
Metta4
FK Panevezys2
Metta1
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Metta3
Paide2
Metta1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Saturday, 18th July 2026, Marupe host Metta at N/A in Latvia Nakotnes liga. We recommend Metta to win as the standout selection.
Marupe arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Metta are travelling well, with a record of 8W 1D 1L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Marupe, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Metta's 2, with 0 draws from 2 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.
Our verdict: metta to win at odds of 1.20 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Latvia Nakotnes liga match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 5 wins from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 2 at @1.20, sitting at roughly 20,30,50% in our model. The match gets going at 1:00 pm over at N/A.
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Marupe vs Metta?
Our selection is 2 — Metta to win, priced at approximately 1.20. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Marupe's current form?
Marupe have won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Metta been performing recently?
Metta have recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Marupe lead with 0 wins versus Metta's 2, with 0 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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