P
Preston Lions
Home
W
D
W
W
W
7W 1D 2L
▼ Declining
VS
—
11:30 am
—
Genis Steel Stadium (Melbourne)
B
Bentleigh Greens
Away
W
L
L
L
L
1W 2D 7L
→ Steady
Preston Lions
50%
Draw
30%
Bentleigh Greens
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
75.2%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-22.2%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
2
Preston Lions
2
Draws
1
Bentleigh Greens
5
Meetings
3.4
Avg Goals
80%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Against Tip
Preston Lions won 2 of the last 5 meetings (2 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Preston Lions
Metric
Bentleigh Greens
1.3
Goals For / Game
0.7
0.7
Goals Against / Game
3
50%
Clean Sheets
10%
7-1-2
W — D — L
1-2-7
Win Rate
2.9
Avg Goals
60%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
P0
0-0
5.8%
0-1
4.1%
0-2
1.4%
0-3
0.3%
0-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
P1
1-0
12.4%
1-1
8.7%
1-2
3.1%
1-3
0.7%
1-4
0.1%
1-5
0.0%
P2
2-0
13.4%
2-1
9.4%
2-2
3.3%
2-3
0.8%
2-4
0.1%
2-5
0.0%
P3
3-0
9.6%
3-1
6.7%
3-2
2.4%
3-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
P4
4-0
5.2%
4-1
3.6%
4-2
1.3%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
P5
5-0
2.2%
5-1
1.6%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
2-0(13.4%)
1-0(12.4%)
3-0(9.6%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
P=Home goals ↓ B=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Preston Lions Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Bentleigh Greens Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
30%
Home Win & BTTS No
44%
Draw & BTTS Yes
6%
Draw & BTTS No
10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
4%
Away Win & BTTS No
6%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
41%
Home Win & Under 2.5
33%
Draw & Over 2.5
9%
Draw & Under 2.5
7%
Away Win & Over 2.5
6%
Away Win & Under 2.5
5%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Bentleigh Greens1
Preston Lions1
Preston Lions2
Bentleigh Greens1
Bentleigh Greens3
Preston Lions2
Preston Lions5
Bentleigh Greens2
Bentleigh Greens0
Preston Lions0
Recent Form
Preston Lions
Preston Lions3
Newcastle Jets2
South Melbourne0
Preston Lions0
Preston Lions2
Hume City1
Avondale FC2
Preston Lions3
George Cross0
Preston Lions2
Heidelberg Utd0
Preston Lions1
St Albans0
Preston Lions1
Preston Lions0
Oakleigh Cannons1
Altona Magic1
Preston Lions0
Preston Lions1
Dandenong City0
Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens2
Dandenong City1
Dandenong Thunder2
Bentleigh Greens1
Green Gully3
Bentleigh Greens0
Bentleigh Greens0
Altona Magic1
Bentleigh Greens1
South Melbourne5
Bentleigh Greens1
Hume City5
Avondale FC4
Bentleigh Greens0
Bentleigh Greens0
George Cross0
Bentleigh Greens2
Heidelberg Utd2
Bentleigh Greens0
Melbourne City U217
Preston Lions (Home)
Preston Lions3
Newcastle Jets2
Preston Lions2
Hume City1
Preston Lions0
Oakleigh Cannons1
Preston Lions1
Dandenong City0
Preston Lions0
South Melbourne3
Preston Lions2
Avondale FC1
Preston Lions1
George Cross1
Preston Lions0
Heidelberg Utd1
Preston Lions3
St Albans0
Preston Lions0
Canberra Croatia0
Bentleigh Greens (Away)
Dandenong Thunder2
Bentleigh Greens1
Green Gully3
Bentleigh Greens0
Avondale FC4
Bentleigh Greens0
Oakleigh Cannons4
Bentleigh Greens0
Dandenong City3
Bentleigh Greens0
Altona Magic0
Bentleigh Greens2
South Melbourne1
Bentleigh Greens0
Hume City1
Bentleigh Greens0
George Cross0
Bentleigh Greens0
North Sunshine Eagles1
Bentleigh Greens2
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Friday, 24th July 2026, Preston Lions host Bentleigh Greens at Genis Steel Stadium (Melbourne) in Australia NPL Victoria. We recommend Preston Lions to win as the standout selection.
Preston Lions arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Bentleigh Greens are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 7L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Preston Lions, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Bentleigh Greens's 1, with 2 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 80% of those meetings.
Our verdict: preston lions to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Australia NPL Victoria match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 1 win, 4 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.33, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 11:30 am over at Genis Steel Stadium (Melbourne).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Preston Lions vs Bentleigh Greens?
Our selection is 1 — Preston Lions to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Preston Lions's current form?
Preston Lions have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Bentleigh Greens been performing recently?
Bentleigh Greens have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Preston Lions lead with 2 wins versus Bentleigh Greens's 1, with 2 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
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