K
Kalmar
Home
D
L
W
W
W
5W 1D 4L
▼ Declining
VS
—
4:30 pm
—
Guldfågeln Arena (Kalmar)
M
Mjallby
Away
W
D
L
D
L
2W 5D 3L
▲ Improving
Implied Prob
76.9%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+11.1%
Value detected
Kelly %
48%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.30
Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Kalmar vs Mjallby
Competition: Sweden Allsvenskan
Date: Saturday, 25th July 2026
KO: 4:30 pm
Pick: Over 1.5 (over 1.5 goals)
Odds: 1.30
Confidence: 88%
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Kalmar
3
Draws
6
Mjallby
10
Meetings
2.8
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 1.5 in 90% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Kalmar
Metric
Mjallby
1.5
Goals For / Game
1.8
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.8
40%
Clean Sheets
20%
5-1-4
W — D — L
2-5-3
Win Rate
3.2
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
K0
0-0
4.3%
0-1
6.4%
0-2
4.8%
0-3
2.4%
0-4
0.9%
0-5
0.3%
K1
1-0
7.1%
1-1
10.6%
1-2
8.0%
1-3
4.0%
1-4
1.5%
1-5
0.5%
K2
2-0
5.8%
2-1
8.8%
2-2
6.6%
2-3
3.3%
2-4
1.2%
2-5
0.4%
K3
3-0
3.2%
3-1
4.8%
3-2
3.6%
3-3
1.8%
3-4
0.7%
3-5
0.2%
K4
4-0
1.3%
4-1
2.0%
4-2
1.5%
4-3
0.7%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
K5
5-0
0.4%
5-1
0.7%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-1(10.6%)
2-1(8.8%)
1-2(8.0%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
K=Home goals ↓ M=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
25%
Home Win & BTTS No
25%
Draw & BTTS Yes
15%
Draw & BTTS No
15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
10%
Away Win & BTTS No
10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
28%
Home Win & Under 2.5
23%
Draw & Over 2.5
17%
Draw & Under 2.5
14%
Away Win & Over 2.5
11%
Away Win & Under 2.5
9%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Mjallby2
Kalmar0
Mjallby4
Kalmar0
Kalmar0
Mjallby3
Mjallby3
Kalmar2
Kalmar0
Mjallby2
Mjallby1
Kalmar1
Kalmar0
Mjallby (PEN 4 - 5)0
Kalmar4
Mjallby1
Kalmar1
Mjallby2
Mjallby1
Kalmar1
Recent Form
Kalmar
Kalmar2
Malmo FF2
Hammarby2
Kalmar0
Kalmar3
Orgryte0
Kalmar2
Brommapojkarna0
AIK0
Kalmar2
GAIS3
Kalmar0
Kalmar2
Degerfors1
Brommapojkarna1
Kalmar0
Kalmar2
Halmstad0
Sirius3
Kalmar2
Mjallby
Mjallby3
Lincoln Red Imps0
Mjallby0
Vasteras SK0
Mjallby1
AIK2
Sirius4
Mjallby4
FC Copenhagen5
Mjallby3
Mjallby3
Halmstad3
Goteborg1
Mjallby1
Elfsborg1
Mjallby1
Mjallby0
Hacken1
Mjallby2
Hammarby1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Saturday, 25th July 2026, Kalmar host Mjallby at Guldfågeln Arena (Kalmar) in Sweden Allsvenskan. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.
Kalmar arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Mjallby are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 5D 3L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Kalmar, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Mjallby's 6, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.30 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Sweden Allsvenskan match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 1.5 at @1.30, sitting at roughly 90% in our model. The match gets going at 4:30 pm over at Guldfågeln Arena (Kalmar).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kalmar vs Mjallby?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 88%.
What is Kalmar's current form?
Kalmar have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Mjallby been performing recently?
Mjallby have recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kalmar lead with 1 wins versus Mjallby's 6, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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