N
Neptunas
Home
D
L
W
W
W
7W 1D 2L
▼ Declining
VS
—
3:00 pm
—
N/A
S
Siauliai 2
Away
L
L
L
L
L
1W 2D 7L
▲ Improving
Neptunas
50%
Draw
30%
Siauliai 2
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
79.4%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-16.4%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Neptunas to win
1.26
Over 2.5 Goals65%
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Neptunas vs Siauliai 2
Competition: Lithuania I Lyga
Date: Saturday, 25th July 2026
KO: 3:00 pm
Pick: 1 (Neptunas to win)
Odds: 1.26
Confidence: 63%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
7
Neptunas
2
Draws
0
Siauliai 2
9
Meetings
3.1
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Neptunas won 7 of the last 9 meetings (2 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Neptunas
Metric
Siauliai 2
1.7
Goals For / Game
1
1.1
Goals Against / Game
2.4
30%
Clean Sheets
10%
7-1-2
W — D — L
1-2-7
Win Rate
3.1
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
N0
0-0
4.5%
0-1
4.7%
0-2
2.5%
0-3
0.9%
0-4
0.2%
0-5
0.1%
N1
1-0
9.2%
1-1
9.7%
1-2
5.1%
1-3
1.8%
1-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
N2
2-0
9.5%
2-1
9.9%
2-2
5.2%
2-3
1.8%
2-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
N3
3-0
6.5%
3-1
6.8%
3-2
3.6%
3-3
1.3%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
N4
4-0
3.3%
4-1
3.5%
4-2
1.8%
4-3
0.6%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.0%
N5
5-0
1.4%
5-1
1.4%
5-2
0.8%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
2-1(9.9%)
2-0(9.5%)
1-0(9.2%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
N=Home goals ↓ S=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Neptunas Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Siauliai 2 Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
44%
Home Win & BTTS No
30%
Draw & BTTS Yes
10%
Draw & BTTS No
6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
6%
Away Win & BTTS No
4%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
48%
Home Win & Under 2.5
26%
Draw & Over 2.5
10%
Draw & Under 2.5
6%
Away Win & Over 2.5
7%
Away Win & Under 2.5
4%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Siauliai 20
Neptunas0
Siauliai 22
Neptunas3
Neptunas5
Siauliai 21
Neptunas2
Siauliai 21
Siauliai 21
Neptunas2
Neptunas3
Siauliai 20
Siauliai 21
Neptunas1
Neptunas3
Siauliai 21
Siauliai 20
Neptunas2
Recent Form
Neptunas
Transinvest 22
Neptunas2
Dainava Alytus1
Neptunas0
Neptunas2
Kauno Zalgiris 21
Neptunas3
Transinvest 20
Ekranas1
Neptunas2
Neptunas1
BE1 NFA0
Hegelmann Litauen 22
Neptunas3
Neptunas1
FK Minija3
Jonava0
Neptunas1
Neptunas2
Zalgiris 21
Siauliai 2
Tauras Taurage3
Siauliai 21
Siauliai 21
Tauras Taurage3
Siauliai 20
Babrungas1
Dainava Alytus5
Siauliai 20
Siauliai 21
Transinvest 22
Garliava1
Siauliai 21
Kauno Zalgiris 22
Siauliai 20
Siauliai 22
Ekranas2
BE1 NFA5
Siauliai 22
Siauliai 22
Hegelmann Litauen 20
Neptunas (Home)
Neptunas2
Kauno Zalgiris 21
Neptunas3
Transinvest 20
Neptunas1
BE1 NFA0
Neptunas1
FK Minija3
Neptunas2
Zalgiris 21
Neptunas0
Dziugas Telsiai2
Neptunas1
BFA Vilnius3
Neptunas1
Tauras Taurage0
Neptunas0
Garliava3
Neptunas0
Riteriai0
Siauliai 2 (Away)
Tauras Taurage3
Siauliai 21
Dainava Alytus5
Siauliai 20
Garliava1
Siauliai 21
Kauno Zalgiris 22
Siauliai 20
BE1 NFA5
Siauliai 22
FK Minija3
Siauliai 21
Zalgiris 24
Siauliai 20
BFA Vilnius1
Siauliai 20
Sveikata2
Siauliai 22
Babrungas1
Siauliai 25
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Saturday, 25th July 2026, Neptunas host Siauliai 2 at N/A in Lithuania I Lyga. We recommend Neptunas to win as the standout selection.
Neptunas arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Siauliai 2 are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 7L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Neptunas, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Siauliai 2's 0, with 2 draws from 9 encounters. Both teams have scored in 67% of those meetings.
Our verdict: neptunas to win at odds of 1.26 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Lithuania I Lyga match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 5 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.26, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 3:00 pm over at N/A.
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Neptunas vs Siauliai 2?
Our selection is 1 — Neptunas to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Neptunas's current form?
Neptunas have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Siauliai 2 been performing recently?
Siauliai 2 have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Neptunas lead with 7 wins versus Siauliai 2's 0, with 2 draws across 9 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
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