B
Bahia W
Home
W
W
D
W
D
6W 3D 1L
▲ Improving
VS
—
11:00 pm
—
Estadio Alberto Oliveira (Feira de Santana)
B
Botafogo W
Away
L
L
W
L
L
1W 1D 8L
→ Steady
Bahia W
50%
Draw
30%
Botafogo W
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
77.5%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-32.5%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Bahia W to win
1.29
Over 1.5 Goals80%
BTTS — No65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Bahia W vs Botafogo W
Competition: Brasileiro Women
Date: Monday, 27th July 2026
KO: 11:00 pm
Pick: 1 (Bahia W to win)
Odds: 1.29
Confidence: 45%
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Also: BTTS — No (65%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Bahia W
2
Draws
2
Botafogo W
5
Meetings
1.4
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
20%
Over 2.5
Against Tip
Bahia W won 1 of the last 5 meetings (2 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Bahia W
Metric
Botafogo W
1.7
Goals For / Game
0.5
0.9
Goals Against / Game
2
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-3-1
W — D — L
1-1-8
Win Rate
2.6
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B0
0-0
7.8%
0-1
5.5%
0-2
1.9%
0-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
B1
1-0
14.5%
1-1
10.1%
1-2
3.5%
1-3
0.8%
1-4
0.1%
1-5
0.0%
B2
2-0
13.4%
2-1
9.4%
2-2
3.3%
2-3
0.8%
2-4
0.1%
2-5
0.0%
B3
3-0
8.2%
3-1
5.8%
3-2
2.0%
3-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
B4
4-0
3.8%
4-1
2.7%
4-2
0.9%
4-3
0.2%
4-4
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
B5
5-0
1.4%
5-1
1.0%
5-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(14.5%)
2-0(13.4%)
2-1(9.4%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
B=Home goals ↓ B=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Bahia W Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Botafogo W Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
23%
Home Win & BTTS No
44%
Draw & BTTS Yes
8%
Draw & BTTS No
14%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
4%
Away Win & BTTS No
7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
34%
Home Win & Under 2.5
34%
Draw & Over 2.5
11%
Draw & Under 2.5
11%
Away Win & Over 2.5
6%
Away Win & Under 2.5
6%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Bahia W1
Botafogo RJ0
Botafogo RJ W1
Bahia0
Botafogo RJ W0
Bahia0
Bahia W1
Botafogo RJ2
Botafogo RJ W1
Bahia1
Recent Form
Bahia W
Itabirito W0
Bahia W1
Planalto EC W0
Bahia W1
Fluminense W3
Bahia W3
Bahia W3
Internacional W0
Mixto W1
Bahia W1
Bahia W0
Palmeiras W0
Bahia W0
Gremio W2
Flamengo W1
Bahia W3
Bahia W3
America Mineiro W1
Bragantino W1
Bahia W2
Botafogo W
Botafogo RJ W0
Bragantino W2
Vitoria W2
Botafogo RJ W0
Botafogo RJ W3
Juventude W0
Botafogo RJ W0
America Mineiro W3
Palmeiras W3
Botafogo RJ W0
Internacional W1
Botafogo RJ W0
Botafogo RJ W0
Bragantino W3
Atletico-MG W2
Botafogo RJ W0
Botafogo RJ W1
Santos W1
Botafogo RJ W1
Corinthians W3
Bahia W (Home)
Bahia W3
Internacional W0
Bahia W0
Palmeiras W0
Bahia W0
Gremio W2
Bahia W3
America Mineiro W1
Bahia W3
Santos W1
Bahia W3
Vitoria W2
Bahia W0
Cruzeiro W2
Bahia W2
Vitoria W0
Bahia W14
Lusaca W2
Bahia W4
Juazeirense W0
Botafogo W (Away)
Vitoria W2
Botafogo RJ W0
Palmeiras W3
Botafogo RJ W0
Internacional W1
Botafogo RJ W0
Atletico-MG W2
Botafogo RJ W0
Mixto W2
Botafogo RJ W1
Vasco W2
Botafogo RJ W1
Ferroviaria W2
Botafogo RJ W1
Fluminense W1
Botafogo RJ W0
Fluminense W2
Botafogo RJ W1
Fluminense W2
Botafogo RJ W0
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Monday, 27th July 2026, Bahia W host Botafogo W at Estadio Alberto Oliveira (Feira de Santana) in Brasileiro Women. We recommend Bahia W to win as the standout selection.
Bahia W arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Botafogo W are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 1D 8L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Bahia W, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Botafogo W's 2, with 2 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.
Our verdict: bahia w to win at odds of 1.29 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Brasileiro Women match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 1 win, 4 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.29, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 11:00 pm over at Estadio Alberto Oliveira (Feira de Santana).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Bahia W vs Botafogo W?
Our selection is 1 — Bahia W to win, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 45%.
What is Bahia W's current form?
Bahia W have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Botafogo W been performing recently?
Botafogo W have recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Bahia W lead with 1 wins versus Botafogo W's 2, with 2 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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