P
Persebaya
Home
W
D
W
W
D
6W 2D 2L
▼ Declining
VS
—
1:30 pm
—
Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium (Surabaya)
P
PSMS Medan
Away
L
D
D
W
L
2W 4D 4L
▲ Improving
Persebaya
50%
Draw
30%
PSMS Medan
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
83.3%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-22.3%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Persebaya to win
1.20
Over 1.5 Goals80%
Persebaya Clean Sheet70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Persebaya vs PSMS Medan
Competition: Indonesia President Cup
Date: Wednesday, 29th July 2026
KO: 1:30 pm
Pick: 1 (Persebaya to win)
Odds: 1.20
Confidence: 61%
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Also: Persebaya Clean Sheet (70%)
Head to Head
Record
4
Persebaya
0
Draws
1
PSMS Medan
5
Meetings
3.4
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Persebaya won 4 of the last 5 meetings (0 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Persebaya
Metric
PSMS Medan
2.6
Goals For / Game
1
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.3
70%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-2-2
W — D — L
2-4-4
Win Rate
2.8
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
P0
0-0
6.1%
0-1
5.2%
0-2
2.2%
0-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
P1
1-0
11.9%
1-1
10.1%
1-2
4.3%
1-3
1.2%
1-4
0.3%
1-5
0.0%
P2
2-0
11.6%
2-1
9.8%
2-2
4.2%
2-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
2-5
0.0%
P3
3-0
7.5%
3-1
6.4%
3-2
2.7%
3-3
0.8%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.0%
P4
4-0
3.7%
4-1
3.1%
4-2
1.3%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
P5
5-0
1.4%
5-1
1.2%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(11.9%)
2-0(11.6%)
2-1(9.8%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
P=Home goals ↓ P=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Persebaya Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
PSMS Medan Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
22%
Home Win & BTTS No
33%
Draw & BTTS Yes
11%
Draw & BTTS No
16%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
7%
Away Win & BTTS No
11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
28%
Home Win & Under 2.5
28%
Draw & Over 2.5
14%
Draw & Under 2.5
14%
Away Win & Over 2.5
9%
Away Win & Under 2.5
9%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
PSMS Medan4
Persebaya0
Persebaya2
PSMS Medan0
PSMS Medan2
Persebaya3
Persebaya3
PSMS Medan0
PSMS Medan1
Persebaya2
Recent Form
Persebaya
Persebaya1
Persija Jakarta0
Persebaya2
PSIS Semarang2
Persebaya5
Persik Kediri0
Semen Padang0
Persebaya7
Persis Solo0
Persebaya0
Persebaya4
PSBS Biak Numfor0
Arema FC0
Persebaya4
Malut United0
Persebaya2
Persebaya1
Madura United2
Persija Jakarta3
Persebaya0
PSMS Medan
PSMS Medan0
Port MTI FC2
Persiraja Aceh1
PSMS Medan1
PSMS Medan1
Adhyaksa1
PSMS Medan1
Sriwijaya0
Garudayaksa1
PSMS Medan0
Persikad Depok2
PSMS Medan2
PSMS Medan1
PSPS Riau1
Bekasi City2
PSMS Medan1
Persekat2
PSMS Medan0
PSMS Medan3
Sumsel United1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Wednesday, 29th July 2026, Persebaya host PSMS Medan at Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium (Surabaya) in Indonesia President Cup. We recommend Persebaya to win as the standout selection.
Persebaya arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.
PSMS Medan are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 4D 4L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Persebaya, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to PSMS Medan's 1, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.
Our verdict: persebaya to win at odds of 1.20 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Indonesia President Cup match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.20, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 1:30 pm over at Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium (Surabaya).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Persebaya vs PSMS Medan?
Our selection is 1 — Persebaya to win, priced at approximately 1.20. Tip confidence rating: 61%.
What is Persebaya's current form?
Persebaya have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has PSMS Medan been performing recently?
PSMS Medan have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Persebaya lead with 4 wins versus PSMS Medan's 1, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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