B
Bayern Leverkusen
Home
W
W
D
L
W
7W 1D 2L
▼ Declining
VS
—
2:00 pm
—
N/A
G
Genk
Away
L
L
W
L
W
4W 2D 3L
▼ Declining
Implied Prob
69.9%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-2.9%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
3
Bayern Leverkusen
1
Draws
0
Genk
4
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
75%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Neutral
Over 2.5 in 50% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Bayern Leverkusen
Metric
Genk
2.8
Goals For / Game
1.6
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.3
30%
Clean Sheets
33%
7-1-2
W — D — L
4-2-3
Win Rate
3.5
Avg Goals
79%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
B0
0-0
3.2%
0-1
4.4%
0-2
3.1%
0-3
1.5%
0-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
B1
1-0
6.5%
1-1
9.1%
1-2
6.4%
1-3
3.0%
1-4
1.0%
1-5
0.3%
B2
2-0
6.7%
2-1
9.3%
2-2
6.5%
2-3
3.1%
2-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
B3
3-0
4.6%
3-1
6.4%
3-2
4.5%
3-3
2.1%
3-4
0.7%
3-5
0.2%
B4
4-0
2.3%
4-1
3.3%
4-2
2.3%
4-3
1.1%
4-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
B5
5-0
1.0%
5-1
1.3%
5-2
0.9%
5-3
0.4%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
2-1(9.3%)
1-1(9.1%)
2-0(6.7%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
B=Home goals ↓ G=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
31%
Home Win & BTTS No
23%
Draw & BTTS Yes
7%
Draw & BTTS No
5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
20%
Away Win & BTTS No
14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
34%
Home Win & Under 2.5
20%
Draw & Over 2.5
8%
Draw & Under 2.5
4%
Away Win & Over 2.5
21%
Away Win & Under 2.5
13%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Genk1
Bayer Leverkusen1
Bayer Leverkusen2
Genk0
Bayer Leverkusen4
Genk1
Genk1
Bayer Leverkusen2
Recent Form
Bayern Leverkusen
Offenbach1
Bayer Leverkusen3
Baumberg0
Bayer Leverkusen7
Bayer Leverkusen1
Hamburger SV1
Stuttgart3
Bayer Leverkusen1
Bayer Leverkusen4
RB Leipzig1
FC Koln1
Bayer Leverkusen2
Bayer Leverkusen0
Bayern Munich2
Bayer Leverkusen1
Augsburg2
Dortmund0
Bayer Leverkusen1
Bayer Leverkusen6
Wolfsburg3
Genk
AZ Alkmaar4
Genk0
Falkirk1
Genk0
Motherwell3
Genk4
Sittard2
Genk1
Genk2
Beveren1
Eendr. Termien1
Genk5
Leuven0
Genk2
Genk0
Antwerp0
St. Liege0
Genk0
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Wednesday, 29th July 2026, Bayern Leverkusen host Genk at N/A in Club Friendly. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.
Bayern Leverkusen arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Genk are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 2D 3L across 9 matches.
Historical meetings favour Bayern Leverkusen, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Genk's 0, with 1 draws from 4 encounters. Both teams have scored in 75% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.43 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Club Friendly match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 2.5 at @1.43, sitting at roughly 80% in our model. The match gets going at 2:00 pm over at N/A.
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Bayern Leverkusen vs Genk?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.43. Tip confidence rating: 67%.
What is Bayern Leverkusen's current form?
Bayern Leverkusen have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Genk been performing recently?
Genk have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 9 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Bayern Leverkusen lead with 3 wins versus Genk's 0, with 1 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 75%.
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