W
Wil
Home
W
W
L
W
L
5W 1D 4L
→ Steady
VS
—
6:30 pm
—
Lidl Arena (Wil)
X
Xamax
Away
W
W
L
L
L
5W 0D 5L
▲ Improving
Implied Prob
69.9%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+7.1%
Value detected
Kelly %
23.5%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.43
Over 2.5 Goals80%
Over 1.5 Goals90%
BTTS — Yes75%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Wil vs Xamax
Competition: Swiss Challenge League
Date: Friday, 31st July 2026
KO: 6:30 pm
Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals)
Odds: 1.43
Confidence: 77%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Also: BTTS — Yes (75%)
Head to Head
Record
6
Wil
3
Draws
1
Xamax
10
Meetings
3.4
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 2.5 in 70% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Wil
Metric
Xamax
1.9
Goals For / Game
2
2
Goals Against / Game
2.3
10%
Clean Sheets
10%
5-1-4
W — D — L
5-0-5
Win Rate
4.1
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
75%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
X0
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
W0
0-0
1.7%
0-1
3.3%
0-2
3.3%
0-3
2.2%
0-4
1.1%
0-5
0.4%
W1
1-0
3.5%
1-1
7.0%
1-2
7.0%
1-3
4.6%
1-4
2.3%
1-5
0.9%
W2
2-0
3.7%
2-1
7.3%
2-2
7.3%
2-3
4.9%
2-4
2.4%
2-5
1.0%
W3
3-0
2.6%
3-1
5.1%
3-2
5.1%
3-3
3.4%
3-4
1.7%
3-5
0.7%
W4
4-0
1.3%
4-1
2.7%
4-2
2.7%
4-3
1.8%
4-4
0.9%
4-5
0.4%
W5
5-0
0.6%
5-1
1.1%
5-2
1.1%
5-3
0.8%
5-4
0.4%
5-5
0.2%
Top Scores
2-1(7.3%)
2-2(7.3%)
1-1(7.0%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
W=Home goals ↓ X=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
36%
Home Win & BTTS No
12%
Draw & BTTS Yes
4%
Draw & BTTS No
1%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
35%
Away Win & BTTS No
12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
38%
Home Win & Under 2.5
10%
Draw & Over 2.5
4%
Draw & Under 2.5
1%
Away Win & Over 2.5
38%
Away Win & Under 2.5
9%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Wil5
Xamax2
Xamax0
Wil0
Wil2
Xamax1
Xamax3
Wil1
Xamax2
Wil3
Wil2
Xamax0
Xamax1
Wil4
Wil4
Xamax0
Xamax2
Wil2
Wil0
Xamax0
Recent Form
Wil
Rapperswil-Jona4
Wil5
Wil3
Bruhl2
Wil0
Luzern2
Wil3
Grasshoppers2
A. Lustenau2
Wil0
Wil1
Vaduz3
Bellinzona2
Wil4
Wil0
Yverdon1
Stade Nyonnais0
Wil1
Wil2
Aarau2
Xamax
Xamax3
Kriens2
Lausanne1
Xamax2
Thun6
Xamax2
Xamax2
Sion4
Lugano2
Xamax1
Lausanne Ouchy2
Xamax1
Xamax3
Etoile-Carouge0
Rapperswil-Jona2
Xamax3
Xamax1
Aarau3
Xamax2
Bellinzona1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Friday, 31st July 2026, Wil host Xamax at Lidl Arena (Wil) in Swiss Challenge League. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.
Wil arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Xamax are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 0D 5L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Wil, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Xamax's 1, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.43 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Swiss Challenge League match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 2.5 at @1.43, sitting at roughly 80% in our model. The match gets going at 6:30 pm over at Lidl Arena (Wil).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Wil vs Xamax?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.43. Tip confidence rating: 77%.
What is Wil's current form?
Wil have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Xamax been performing recently?
Xamax have recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Wil lead with 6 wins versus Xamax's 1, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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