P
Preston Lions
Home
W
W
D
W
W
7W 1D 2L
▼ Declining
VS
—
11:30 am
—
Genis Steel Stadium
G
Green Gully
Away
D
W
L
W
W
2W 2D 6L
▼ Declining
Preston Lions
50%
Draw
30%
Green Gully
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
77.5%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-17.5%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
7
Preston Lions
2
Draws
2
Green Gully
11
Meetings
3.5
Avg Goals
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Preston Lions won 7 of the last 11 meetings (2 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Preston Lions
Metric
Green Gully
1.3
Goals For / Game
0.9
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.7
50%
Clean Sheets
20%
7-1-2
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
2.3
Avg Goals
55%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
P0
0-0
10.0%
0-1
8.0%
0-2
3.2%
0-3
0.9%
0-4
0.2%
0-5
0.0%
P1
1-0
15.0%
1-1
12.0%
1-2
4.8%
1-3
1.3%
1-4
0.3%
1-5
0.0%
P2
2-0
11.3%
2-1
9.0%
2-2
3.6%
2-3
1.0%
2-4
0.2%
2-5
0.0%
P3
3-0
5.6%
3-1
4.5%
3-2
1.8%
3-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
P4
4-0
2.1%
4-1
1.7%
4-2
0.7%
4-3
0.2%
4-4
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
P5
5-0
0.6%
5-1
0.5%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(15.0%)
2-0(11.3%)
2-1(9.0%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
P=Home goals ↓ G=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Preston Lions Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Green Gully Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
27%
Home Win & BTTS No
40%
Draw & BTTS Yes
6%
Draw & BTTS No
8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
8%
Away Win & BTTS No
11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
30%
Home Win & Under 2.5
37%
Draw & Over 2.5
6%
Draw & Under 2.5
8%
Away Win & Over 2.5
9%
Away Win & Under 2.5
10%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Green Gully0
Preston Lions4
Green Gully0
Preston Lions1
Preston Lions3
Green Gully2
Green Gully4
Preston Lions0
Preston Lions0
Green Gully0
Preston Lions3
Green Gully2
Green Gully4
Preston Lions0
Preston Lions2
Green Gully1
Green Gully2
Preston Lions3
Preston Lions2
Green Gully1
Green Gully2
Preston Lions2
Recent Form
Preston Lions
Preston Lions1
Bentleigh Greens0
Preston Lions3
Newcastle Jets2
South Melbourne0
Preston Lions0
Preston Lions2
Hume City1
Avondale FC2
Preston Lions3
George Cross0
Preston Lions2
Heidelberg Utd0
Preston Lions1
St Albans0
Preston Lions1
Preston Lions0
Oakleigh Cannons1
Altona Magic1
Preston Lions0
Green Gully
Green Gully0
Dandenong City0
Green Gully3
Dandenong Thunder1
Green Gully1
Altona Magic3
Green Gully3
Bentleigh Greens0
South Melbourne1
Green Gully2
Hume City3
Green Gully2
Green Gully0
Avondale FC2
George Cross0
Green Gully0
Green Gully0
Heidelberg Utd1
Green Gully1
Melbourne City U213
Preston Lions (Home)
Preston Lions1
Bentleigh Greens0
Preston Lions3
Newcastle Jets2
Preston Lions2
Hume City1
Preston Lions0
Oakleigh Cannons1
Preston Lions1
Dandenong City0
Preston Lions0
South Melbourne3
Preston Lions2
Avondale FC1
Preston Lions1
George Cross1
Preston Lions0
Heidelberg Utd1
Preston Lions3
St Albans0
Green Gully (Away)
South Melbourne1
Green Gully2
Hume City3
Green Gully2
George Cross0
Green Gully0
St Albans1
Green Gully0
Dandenong City2
Green Gully1
Dandenong Thunder1
Green Gully1
Altona Magic1
Green Gully1
Bentleigh Greens4
Green Gully0
Avondale FC5
Green Gully0
Heidelberg Utd2
Green Gully1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Friday, 31st July 2026, Preston Lions host Green Gully at Genis Steel Stadium in Australia NPL Victoria. We recommend Preston Lions to win as the standout selection.
Preston Lions arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Green Gully are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 2D 6L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Preston Lions, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Green Gully's 2, with 2 draws from 11 encounters. Both teams have scored in 55% of those meetings.
Our verdict: preston lions to win at odds of 1.29 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Australia NPL Victoria match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.29, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 11:30 am over at Genis Steel Stadium.
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Preston Lions vs Green Gully?
Our selection is 1 — Preston Lions to win, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is Preston Lions's current form?
Preston Lions have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Green Gully been performing recently?
Green Gully have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Preston Lions lead with 7 wins versus Green Gully's 2, with 2 draws across 11 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 55%.
Bet Responsibly. StraightWinOdds provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.