S
Sporting CP
Home
D
W
W
W
W
7W 2D 1L
→ Steady
VS
—
8:15 pm
—
Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon)
V
Vitoria Guimaraes
Away
L
D
W
D
W
5W 2D 3L
▼ Declining
Sporting CP
50%
Draw
30%
Vitoria Guimaraes
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
81.3%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-20.3%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Sporting CP to win
1.23
Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes
Competition: Liga Portugal
Date: Friday, 14th August 2026
KO: 8:15 pm
Pick: 1 (Sporting CP to win)
Odds: 1.23
Confidence: 61%
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Head to Head
Record
7
Sporting CP
1
Draws
2
Vitoria Guimaraes
10
Meetings
4.1
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Sporting CP won 7 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Sporting CP
Metric
Vitoria Guimaraes
3.4
Goals For / Game
1.7
1
Goals Against / Game
0.8
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
7-2-1
W — D — L
5-2-3
Win Rate
3.5
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
V0
V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
S0
0-0
3.2%
0-1
4.3%
0-2
2.9%
0-3
1.3%
0-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
S1
1-0
6.7%
1-1
9.0%
1-2
6.1%
1-3
2.7%
1-4
0.9%
1-5
0.3%
S2
2-0
7.0%
2-1
9.5%
2-2
6.4%
2-3
2.9%
2-4
1.0%
2-5
0.3%
S3
3-0
4.9%
3-1
6.6%
3-2
4.5%
3-3
2.0%
3-4
0.7%
3-5
0.2%
S4
4-0
2.6%
4-1
3.5%
4-2
2.3%
4-3
1.1%
4-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
S5
5-0
1.1%
5-1
1.5%
5-2
1.0%
5-3
0.4%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
2-1(9.5%)
2-0(7.0%)
1-0(6.7%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
S=Home goals ↓ V=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Sporting CP Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Vitoria Guimaraes Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
28%
Home Win & BTTS No
23%
Draw & BTTS Yes
8%
Draw & BTTS No
6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
20%
Away Win & BTTS No
16%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
30%
Home Win & Under 2.5
20%
Draw & Over 2.5
8%
Draw & Under 2.5
6%
Away Win & Over 2.5
22%
Away Win & Under 2.5
14%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Sporting CP5
Vitoria Guimaraes1
Sporting CP1
Vitoria Guimaraes2
Vitoria Guimaraes1
Sporting CP4
Sporting CP2
Vitoria Guimaraes0
Vitoria Guimaraes4
Sporting CP4
Sporting CP3
Vitoria Guimaraes0
Vitoria Guimaraes3
Sporting CP2
Vitoria Guimaraes0
Sporting CP2
Sporting CP3
Vitoria Guimaraes0
Vitoria Guimaraes1
Sporting CP3
Recent Form
Sporting CP
Estrela2
Sporting CP2
Sporting CP4
Nottingham1
Sporting CP2
Monaco0
Sporting CP7
Strasbourg0
Sporting CP4
Celtic1
Sporting CP1
Torreense2
Sporting CP3
Gil Vicente0
Rio Ave1
Sporting CP4
Sporting CP5
Vitoria Guimaraes1
Sporting CP2
Tondela2
Vitoria Guimaraes
Vitoria Guimaraes0
Arouca1
Varzim1
Vitoria Guimaraes1
Vitoria Guimaraes2
Chaves0
Vitoria Guimaraes1
Nottingham1
Al Ahli SC1
Vitoria Guimaraes3
Vitoria Guimaraes2
Academica0
Vitoria Guimaraes5
Penafiel0
Vitoria Guimaraes3
Felgueiras1
Nacional2
Vitoria Guimaraes0
Vitoria Guimaraes0
Casa Pia1
Match Analysis
Writeup
Let me be honest with you about how this Liga Portugal match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.23, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 8:15 pm over at Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
Our selection is 1 — Sporting CP to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 61%.
What is Sporting CP's current form?
Sporting CP have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Vitoria Guimaraes been performing recently?
Vitoria Guimaraes have recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Sporting CP lead with 7 wins versus Vitoria Guimaraes's 2, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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