C
Czech Republic
Home
L
L
D
L
W
4W 3D 3L
→ Steady
VS
—
7:45 pm
—
Fortuna Arena (Prague)
E
England
Away
L
W
L
W
W
7W 1D 2L
▼ Declining
Implied Prob
80.6%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-10.6%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
2 — England to win
1.24
Over 2.5 Goals80%
Over 1.5 Goals90%
BTTS — Yes70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Czech Republic vs England
Competition: UEFA Nations League
Date: Tuesday, 29th September 2026
KO: 7:45 pm
Pick: 2 (England to win)
Odds: 1.24
Confidence: 70%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Also: BTTS — Yes (70%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Czech Republic
1
Draws
3
England
5
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
England won 3 of 5 meetings.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Czech Republic
Metric
England
1.9
Goals For / Game
2.5
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.5
20%
Clean Sheets
30%
4-3-3
W — D — L
7-1-2
Win Rate
3.7
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
E0
E1
E2
E3
E4
E5
C0
0-0
2.6%
0-1
5.1%
0-2
4.9%
0-3
3.2%
0-4
1.6%
0-5
0.6%
C1
1-0
4.4%
1-1
8.6%
1-2
8.4%
1-3
5.5%
1-4
2.7%
1-5
1.0%
C2
2-0
3.8%
2-1
7.3%
2-2
7.1%
2-3
4.6%
2-4
2.3%
2-5
0.9%
C3
3-0
2.1%
3-1
4.2%
3-2
4.1%
3-3
2.6%
3-4
1.3%
3-5
0.5%
C4
4-0
0.9%
4-1
1.8%
4-2
1.7%
4-3
1.1%
4-4
0.5%
4-5
0.2%
C5
5-0
0.3%
5-1
0.6%
5-2
0.6%
5-3
0.4%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.1%
Top Scores
1-2(8.4%)
1-3(5.5%)
0-1(5.1%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
C=Home goals ↓ E=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
22%
Home Win & BTTS No
9%
Draw & BTTS Yes
11%
Draw & BTTS No
5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
38%
Away Win & BTTS No
16%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
25%
Home Win & Under 2.5
6%
Draw & Over 2.5
12%
Draw & Under 2.5
3%
Away Win & Over 2.5
43%
Away Win & Under 2.5
11%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Czech Republic0
England1
Czech Republic2
England1
England5
Czech Republic0
England2
Czech Republic2
England2
Czech Republic0
Recent Form
Czech Republic
Czech Republic1
Croatia2
Czech Republic0
Mexico3
Czech Republic1
South Africa1
South Korea2
Czech Republic1
Czech Republic3
Guatemala1
Czech Republic2
Kosovo1
Czech Republic2
Denmark (3-1)2
Czech Republic2
Ireland (4-3)2
Czech Republic6
Gibraltar0
Czech Republic1
San Marino0
England
England2
Spain3
France4
England6
England1
Argentina2
Norway1
England2
Mexico2
England3
England2
D.R. Congo1
Panama0
England2
England0
Ghana0
England4
Croatia2
England3
Costa Rica0
Match Analysis
Writeup
Let me be honest with you about how this UEFA Nations League match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 2 at @1.24, sitting at roughly 25% in our model. The match gets going at 7:45 pm over at Fortuna Arena (Prague).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Czech Republic vs England?
Our selection is 2 — England to win, priced at approximately 1.24. Tip confidence rating: 70%.
What is Czech Republic's current form?
Czech Republic have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has England been performing recently?
England have recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Czech Republic lead with 1 wins versus England's 3, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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