O
Olimpia Asuncion
Home
W
W
W
W
D
8W 1D 1L
→ Steady
VS
—
11:00 pm
—
Estadio Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb (Asunción)
S
Sp. Luqueno
Away
L
W
L
L
D
4W 1D 5L
▲ Improving
Implied Prob
73%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-1%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Olimpia Asuncion to win
1.37
Over 2.5 Goals65%
Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Olimpia Asuncion vs Sp. Luqueno
Competition: Copa Paraguay
Date: Thursday, 1st October 2026
KO: 11:00 pm
Pick: 1 (Olimpia Asuncion to win)
Odds: 1.37
Confidence: 72%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
10
Olimpia Asuncion
0
Draws
0
Sp. Luqueno
10
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Olimpia Asuncion won 10 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Olimpia Asuncion
Metric
Sp. Luqueno
2.2
Goals For / Game
1.1
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.3
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
8-1-1
W — D — L
4-1-5
Win Rate
2.9
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
O0
0-0
5.5%
0-1
6.3%
0-2
3.6%
0-3
1.4%
0-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
O1
1-0
9.6%
1-1
11.1%
1-2
6.4%
1-3
2.4%
1-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
O2
2-0
8.4%
2-1
9.7%
2-2
5.6%
2-3
2.1%
2-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
O3
3-0
4.9%
3-1
5.7%
3-2
3.3%
3-3
1.3%
3-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
O4
4-0
2.2%
4-1
2.5%
4-2
1.4%
4-3
0.6%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.0%
O5
5-0
0.8%
5-1
0.9%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
2-1(9.7%)
1-0(9.6%)
2-0(8.4%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
O=Home goals ↓ S=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
34%
Home Win & BTTS No
28%
Draw & BTTS Yes
4%
Draw & BTTS No
4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
17%
Away Win & BTTS No
14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
40%
Home Win & Under 2.5
22%
Draw & Over 2.5
5%
Draw & Under 2.5
3%
Away Win & Over 2.5
20%
Away Win & Under 2.5
11%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
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Kelly %
—
Stake
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Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Olimpia Asuncion3
Sp. Luqueno0
Sp. Luqueno1
Olimpia Asuncion2
Olimpia Asuncion1
Sp. Luqueno0
Sp. Luqueno2
Olimpia Asuncion4
Olimpia Asuncion2
Sp. Luqueno0
Olimpia Asuncion3
Sp. Luqueno1
Sp. Luqueno0
Olimpia Asuncion1
Sp. Luqueno0
Olimpia Asuncion1
Olimpia Asuncion4
Sp. Luqueno3
Sp. Luqueno0
Olimpia Asuncion2
Recent Form
Olimpia Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion0
Olimpia Asuncion1
San Lorenzo0
Olimpia Asuncion3
Olimpia Asuncion3
Sp. Luqueno0
Sportivo Trinidense1
Olimpia Asuncion2
Olimpia Asuncion1
Guarani1
Recoleta1
Olimpia Asuncion2
Cristobal Colon FC3
Olimpia Asuncion5
Olimpia Asuncion2
Cerro Porteno1
Olimpia Asuncion1
Vasco4
Olimpia Asuncion2
Ameliano1
Sp. Luqueno
Sp. Luqueno0
Guarani1
Sp. Luqueno1
Recoleta0
Olimpia Asuncion3
Sp. Luqueno0
Sp. Luqueno1
Ameliano2
2 de Mayo2
Sp. Luqueno2
Sp. Luqueno2
Rubio Nu1
Nacional Asuncion2
Sp. Luqueno0
Paraguari AC0
Sp. Luqueno2
Sp. Luqueno1
Libertad Asuncion2
San Lorenzo0
Sp. Luqueno2
Match Analysis
Writeup
Let me be honest with you about how this Copa Paraguay match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.37, sitting at roughly 54% in our model. The match gets going at 11:00 pm over at Estadio Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb (Asunción).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Olimpia Asuncion vs Sp. Luqueno?
Our selection is 1 — Olimpia Asuncion to win, priced at approximately 1.37. Tip confidence rating: 72%.
What is Olimpia Asuncion's current form?
Olimpia Asuncion have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Sp. Luqueno been performing recently?
Sp. Luqueno have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Olimpia Asuncion lead with 10 wins versus Sp. Luqueno's 0, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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