LOST Tip LOST Aalborg 1-3 Middelfart
A

Aalborg

Home
D D W W W
4W 4D 2L โ–ผ Declining
VS
1-3
M
Middelfart
Away
L L L L L
0W 0D 10L โ†’ Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection ยท Friday, 8th May 2026
1
Backing Aalborg to win
Aalborg 50%
Draw 30%
Middelfart 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 79.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -19.4% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
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Head to Head
Record
5
Aalborg
0
Draws
0
Middelfart
5
Meetings
3.8
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Aalborg won 5 of the last 5 meetings (0 draws).
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Aalborg
Metric
Middelfart
1.8
Goals For / Game
0.7
1.3
Goals Against / Game
3.2
10%
Clean Sheets
0%
4-4-2
W โ€” D โ€” L
0-0-10
Win Rate
40%
0%
3.5
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
A0
0-0 3.0%
0-1 3.0%
0-2 1.5%
0-3 0.5%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
A1
1-0 7.6%
1-1 7.6%
1-2 3.8%
1-3 1.3%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 9.4%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.6%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 7.9%
3-1 7.9%
3-2 3.9%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
A4
4-0 4.9%
4-1 4.9%
4-2 2.5%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 2.5%
5-1 2.5%
5-2 1.2%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-0(9.4%) 2-1(9.4%) 3-0(7.9%)
โ–  Best match โ–  Possible โ–  Low ยท โ–  Contradicts tip A=Home goals โ†“   M=Away โ†’
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Aalborg Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Middelfart Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
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Team Ratings
Grades
Aalborg
Overall
5.2 โ–ผ
Scoring
6.0 โ–ผ
Defence
5.7 โ–ผ
Middelfart
Overall
0.0 โ€”
Scoring
2.3 โ€”
Defence
0.0 โ€”
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Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 44%
Home Win & BTTS No 23%
Draw & BTTS Yes 21%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 37%
Home Win & Under 2.5 30%
Draw & Over 2.5 18%
Draw & Under 2.5 15%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
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Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
โ€”
Kelly %
โ€”
Stake
โ€”
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
04.04.261D
Middelfart2
Aalborg5
01.11.251D
Middelfart1
Aalborg2
14.09.251D
Aalborg4
Middelfart0
09.11.22CUP
Middelfart1
Aalborg2
20.09.17CUP
Middelfart0
Aalborg2
Recent Form
Aalborg
01.05.261D
Aalborg1
Hobro1
D
26.04.261D
Koge1
Aalborg1
D
23.04.261D
Aalborg3
B.932
W
18.04.261D
Aalborg3
Aarhus Fremad1
W
10.04.261D
Hobro0
Aalborg1
W
04.04.261D
Middelfart2
Aalborg5
W
21.03.261D
Aalborg1
Esbjerg1
D
14.03.261D
Hobro1
Aalborg0
L
06.03.261D
Aalborg0
Aarhus Fremad1
L
27.02.261D
Aalborg3
Hillerod3
D
Middelfart
01.05.261D
Middelfart0
Aarhus Fremad1
L
26.04.261D
B.932
Middelfart1
L
22.04.261D
Aarhus Fremad5
Middelfart1
L
18.04.261D
Middelfart0
Hobro6
L
10.04.261D
Koge2
Middelfart0
L
04.04.261D
Middelfart2
Aalborg5
L
21.03.261D
Middelfart0
Hobro1
L
13.03.261D
Lyngby4
Middelfart1
L
07.03.261D
Middelfart1
Hvidovre IF2
L
28.02.261D
Aarhus Fremad4
Middelfart1
L
๐Ÿ“
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Friday, 8th May 2026, Aalborg host Middelfart in Denmark 1 Division. We recommend Aalborg to win as the standout selection.

Aalborg arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Middelfart are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 0D 10L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Aalborg, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Middelfart's 0, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: aalborg to win at odds of 1.26 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Denmark 1 Division match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.26. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

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Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Aalborg vs Middelfart?
Our selection is 1 โ€” Aalborg to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is Aalborg's current form?
Aalborg have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Middelfart been performing recently?
Middelfart have recorded 0 wins, 0 draws and 10 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Aalborg lead with 5 wins versus Middelfart's 0, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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