A
AC Milan
Home
W
W
L
D
D
3W 3D 4L
▼ Declining
VS
—
7:45 pm
—
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro)
V
Venezia
Away
L
W
D
L
W
6W 2D 2L
▼ Declining
Implied Prob
65.8%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-12.8%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — AC Milan to win
1.52
Over 2.5 Goals70%
Over 1.5 Goals95%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
AC Milan vs Venezia
Date: Friday, 28th August 2026
KO: 7:45 pm
Pick: 1 (AC Milan to win)
Odds: 1.52
Confidence: 53%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%)
Head to Head
Record
8
AC Milan
1
Draws
1
Venezia
10
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
AC Milan won 8 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
AC Milan
Metric
Venezia
1.4
Goals For / Game
2.9
1.7
Goals Against / Game
1.4
10%
Clean Sheets
40%
3-3-4
W — D — L
6-2-2
Win Rate
3.7
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
V0
V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
A0
0-0
2.5%
0-1
5.7%
0-2
6.5%
0-3
5.0%
0-4
2.9%
0-5
1.3%
A1
1-0
3.5%
1-1
8.0%
1-2
9.2%
1-3
7.0%
1-4
4.0%
1-5
1.9%
A2
2-0
2.4%
2-1
5.6%
2-2
6.4%
2-3
4.9%
2-4
2.8%
2-5
1.3%
A3
3-0
1.1%
3-1
2.6%
3-2
3.0%
3-3
2.3%
3-4
1.3%
3-5
0.6%
A4
4-0
0.4%
4-1
0.9%
4-2
1.1%
4-3
0.8%
4-4
0.5%
4-5
0.2%
A5
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.1%
Top Scores
2-1(5.6%)
1-0(3.5%)
3-2(3.0%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
A=Home goals ↓ V=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
16%
Home Win & BTTS No
10%
Draw & BTTS Yes
13%
Draw & BTTS No
9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
31%
Away Win & BTTS No
21%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
18%
Home Win & Under 2.5
8%
Draw & Over 2.5
15%
Draw & Under 2.5
7%
Away Win & Over 2.5
36%
Away Win & Under 2.5
16%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Venezia0
AC Milan2
AC Milan4
Venezia0
Venezia0
AC Milan3
AC Milan2
Venezia0
Venezia1
AC Milan4
AC Milan1
Venezia1
Venezia1
AC Milan0
AC Milan3
Venezia0
AC Milan2
Venezia1
Venezia0
AC Milan2
Recent Form
AC Milan
Torino1
AC Milan2
Manchester Utd2
AC Milan4
Chelsea3
AC Milan0
AC Milan1
Inter1
Celtic2
AC Milan2
AC Milan1
Cagliari2
Genoa1
AC Milan2
AC Milan2
Atalanta3
Sassuolo2
AC Milan0
AC Milan0
Juventus0
Venezia
Venezia0
Lecce2
Venezia3
Modena2
Brest2
Venezia2
St Etienne4
Venezia3
Galatasaray0
Venezia3
Venezia8
Vis Pesaro0
Venezia4
Dolomiti Bellunesi2
Venezia2
Palermo0
Spezia2
Venezia2
Venezia2
Empoli0
Match Analysis
Writeup
Let me be honest with you about how this Unknown League match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.52, sitting at roughly 52 in our model. The match gets going at 7:45 pm over at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for AC Milan vs Venezia?
Our selection is 1 — AC Milan to win, priced at approximately 1.52. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is AC Milan's current form?
AC Milan have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Venezia been performing recently?
Venezia have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
AC Milan lead with 8 wins versus Venezia's 1, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
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