WON
Tip WON
Al Ahli SC 4-0 Al Khaleej
A
Al Ahli SC
Home
W
W
W
L
D
5W 1D 4L
→ Steady
VS
4-0
7:00 pm
King Abdullah Sports City (Jeddah)
A
Al Khaleej
Away
W
W
D
D
D
2W 5D 3L
→ Steady
Implied Prob
62.1%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+13.9%
Value detected
Kelly %
36.7%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.61
Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Al Ahli SC vs Al Khaleej
Competition: Saudi Professional League
Date: Friday, 23rd October 2026
KO: 7:00 pm
Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals)
Odds: 1.61
Confidence: 76%
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Head to Head
Record
7
Al Ahli SC
3
Draws
0
Al Khaleej
10
Meetings
3.7
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 2.5 in 80% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Ahli SC
Metric
Al Khaleej
2.3
Goals For / Game
0.9
1.6
Goals Against / Game
1.5
20%
Clean Sheets
30%
5-1-4
W — D — L
2-5-3
Win Rate
3.2
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0
4.3%
0-1
5.4%
0-2
3.4%
0-3
1.4%
0-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
A1
1-0
8.1%
1-1
10.2%
1-2
6.4%
1-3
2.7%
1-4
0.8%
1-5
0.2%
A2
2-0
7.7%
2-1
9.7%
2-2
6.0%
2-3
2.5%
2-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
A3
3-0
4.9%
3-1
6.1%
3-2
3.8%
3-3
1.6%
3-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
A4
4-0
2.3%
4-1
2.9%
4-2
1.8%
4-3
0.8%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
A5
5-0
0.9%
5-1
1.1%
5-2
0.7%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-1(10.2%)
2-1(9.7%)
1-0(8.1%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
A=Home goals ↓ A=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
30%
Home Win & BTTS No
20%
Draw & BTTS Yes
18%
Draw & BTTS No
12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
12%
Away Win & BTTS No
8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
30%
Home Win & Under 2.5
20%
Draw & Over 2.5
18%
Draw & Under 2.5
12%
Away Win & Over 2.5
12%
Away Win & Under 2.5
8%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Al Khaleej1
Al Ahli SC4
Al Ahli SC4
Al Khaleej1
Al Ahli SC2
Al Khaleej2
Al Khaleej0
Al Ahli SC3
Al Ahli SC1
Al Khaleej0
Al Khaleej1
Al Ahli SC3
Al Khaleej2
Al Ahli SC2
Al Ahli SC4
Al Khaleej1
Al Ahli SC1
Al Khaleej1
Al Khaleej0
Al Ahli SC4
Recent Form
Al Ahli SC
Al Fayha2
Al Ahli SC3
Al Wasl1
Al Ahli SC3
Al Fateh0
Al Ahli SC4
Mamelodi Sundowns2
Al Ahli SC1
Al Ahli SC1
Pakhtakor1
Al Ahli SC3
Al Hazem1
Al Qadsiah3
Al Ahli SC2
Al Ahli SC5
Al Riyadh0
Al Hilal3
Al Ahli SC0
Al Kholood3
Al Ahli SC1
Al Khaleej
Al Fateh2
Al Khaleej3
Al Khaleej2
Al Fayha0
Al Ettifaq1
Al Khaleej1
Al Khaleej1
Al Nassr1
Al Khaleej0
Al Riyadh0
Neom SC3
Al Khaleej0
Al Khaleej1
Al Hilal5
Abha1
Al Khaleej1
Al Khaleej0
Al Shabab0
Al Okhdood2
Al Khaleej0
Match Analysis
Writeup
Let me be honest with you about how this Saudi Professional League match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 wins, 3 draws from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 2.5 at @1.61, sitting at roughly 84% in our model. The match gets going at 7:00 pm over at King Abdullah Sports City (Jeddah).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Ahli SC vs Al Khaleej?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.61. Tip confidence rating: 76%.
What is Al Ahli SC's current form?
Al Ahli SC have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Al Khaleej been performing recently?
Al Khaleej have recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Ahli SC lead with 7 wins versus Al Khaleej's 0, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
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