A
Al Ula
Home
D
W
W
W
W
7W 1D 2L
▼ Declining
VS
—
5:45 pm
—
Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium (Medina)
A
Al Orubah
Away
D
D
W
D
D
1W 6D 3L
→ Steady
Implied Prob
80.6%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-16.6%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
3
Al Ula
0
Draws
0
Al Orubah
3
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Al Ula won 3 of the last 3 meetings (0 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Ula
Metric
Al Orubah
2.1
Goals For / Game
0.7
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1
50%
Clean Sheets
40%
7-1-2
W — D — L
1-6-3
Win Rate
2.4
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0
9.5%
0-1
7.6%
0-2
3.1%
0-3
0.8%
0-4
0.2%
0-5
0.0%
A1
1-0
14.8%
1-1
11.8%
1-2
4.7%
1-3
1.3%
1-4
0.3%
1-5
0.0%
A2
2-0
11.5%
2-1
9.2%
2-2
3.7%
2-3
1.0%
2-4
0.2%
2-5
0.0%
A3
3-0
5.9%
3-1
4.7%
3-2
1.9%
3-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
A4
4-0
2.3%
4-1
1.8%
4-2
0.7%
4-3
0.2%
4-4
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
A5
5-0
0.7%
5-1
0.6%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(14.8%)
2-0(11.5%)
2-1(9.2%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
A=Home goals ↓ A=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
31%
Home Win & BTTS No
31%
Draw & BTTS Yes
15%
Draw & BTTS No
15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
5%
Away Win & BTTS No
5%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
27%
Home Win & Under 2.5
34%
Draw & Over 2.5
14%
Draw & Under 2.5
17%
Away Win & Over 2.5
4%
Away Win & Under 2.5
5%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Al Ula2
Al Orubah1
Al Ula3
Al Orubah1
Al Orubah0
Al Ula1
Recent Form
Al Ula
Al Zulfi1
Al Ula1
Al Okhdood1
Al Ula5
Al Ula3
Jeddah0
Damac0
Al Ula1
Al Ula2
Al Raed0
Al Anwar0
Al Ula1
Al Ula3
Al Jabalain1
Al Ula3
Al Fateh0
Crystal Palace3
Al Ula1
Como3
Al Ula1
Al Orubah
Al Orubah1
Al Bukiryah1
Al Jabalain0
Al Orubah0
Al Orubah1
Al Jeel0
Jeddah2
Al Orubah2
Al Orubah1
Al Zulfi1
Damac0
Al Orubah0
Al Orubah0
Al Raed1
Al Orubah0
Abha (3-2)0
Al Qadisiya3
Al Orubah1
Al Ula2
Al Orubah1
Match Analysis
Writeup
Let me be honest with you about how this Saudi Division 1 match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 1 win, 4 draws from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.24, sitting at roughly roughly 47 in our model. The match gets going at 5:45 pm over at Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium (Medina).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Ula vs Al Orubah?
Our selection is 1 — Al Ula to win, priced at approximately 1.24. Tip confidence rating: 64%.
What is Al Ula's current form?
Al Ula have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Al Orubah been performing recently?
Al Orubah have recorded 1 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Ula lead with 3 wins versus Al Orubah's 0, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
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