A
Aston Villa
Home
D
W
W
W
L
4W 2D 4L
▼ Declining
VS
—
8:00 pm
—
Villa Park (Birmingham)
F
Fenerbahce
Away
W
W
W
D
D
6W 3D 1L
▲ Improving
Implied Prob
76.9%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+6.1%
Value detected
Kelly %
26.3%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1X — Aston Villa to win or draw
1.30
Over 2.5 Goals65%
Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce
Competition: UEFA Champions League
Date: Wednesday, 14th October 2026
KO: 8:00 pm
Pick: 1X (Aston Villa to win or draw)
Odds: 1.30
Confidence: 83%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
3
Aston Villa
0
Draws
0
Fenerbahce
3
Meetings
2.3
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
33%
Over 2.5
Neutral
Insufficient H2H data.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Aston Villa
Metric
Fenerbahce
1.6
Goals For / Game
2.4
1.7
Goals Against / Game
0.7
10%
Clean Sheets
50%
4-2-4
W — D — L
6-3-1
Win Rate
3.2
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
A0
0-0
4.1%
0-1
8.4%
0-2
8.6%
0-3
5.9%
0-4
3.0%
0-5
1.2%
A1
1-0
4.7%
1-1
9.6%
1-2
9.9%
1-3
6.7%
1-4
3.5%
1-5
1.4%
A2
2-0
2.7%
2-1
5.5%
2-2
5.7%
2-3
3.9%
2-4
2.0%
2-5
0.8%
A3
3-0
1.0%
3-1
2.1%
3-2
2.2%
3-3
1.5%
3-4
0.8%
3-5
0.3%
A4
4-0
0.3%
4-1
0.6%
4-2
0.6%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
A5
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-1(9.6%)
2-2(5.7%)
2-1(5.5%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
A=Home goals ↓ F=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
19%
Home Win & BTTS No
13%
Draw & BTTS Yes
12%
Draw & BTTS No
8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
29%
Away Win & BTTS No
19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
21%
Home Win & Under 2.5
11%
Draw & Over 2.5
13%
Draw & Under 2.5
7%
Away Win & Over 2.5
31%
Away Win & Under 2.5
17%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Fenerbahce0
Aston Villa1
Fenerbahce0
Aston Villa2
Aston Villa4
Fenerbahce0
Recent Form
Aston Villa
Aston Villa2
Brentford2
Sevilla1
Aston Villa3
Tottenham2
Aston Villa3
Coventry1
Aston Villa3
Aston Villa1
Nottingham2
Club Brugge KV2
Aston Villa3
Hull0
Aston Villa0
Aston Villa0
Arsenal1
Brighton4
Aston Villa0
B. Monchengladbach2
Aston Villa1
Fenerbahce
Rizespor0
Fenerbahce3
Turan Tovuz0
Fenerbahce2
Fenerbahce8
Eyupspor0
Gaziantep0
Fenerbahce0
Fenerbahce1
AS Roma1
Fenerbahce1
Besiktas2
Samsunspor0
Fenerbahce2
Lyon1
Fenerbahce2
Fenerbahce4
Konyaspor2
Fenerbahce1
Lyon1
Match Analysis
Writeup
Let me be honest with you about how this UEFA Champions League match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1X at @1.30, sitting at roughly 83% in our model. The match gets going at 8:00 pm over at Villa Park (Birmingham).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce?
Our selection is 1X — Aston Villa to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 83%.
What is Aston Villa's current form?
Aston Villa have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Fenerbahce been performing recently?
Fenerbahce have recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Aston Villa lead with 3 wins versus Fenerbahce's 0, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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