A
Atletic Escaldes
Home
L
W
W
W
W
5W 1D 4L
→ Steady
VS
—
3:00 pm
—
Estadi Nacional (Andorra la Vella
V
Vaduz
Away
L
W
W
L
W
7W 0D 3L
▼ Declining
Implied Prob
84%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+6%
Value detected
Kelly %
37.4%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.19
Over 2.5 Goals80%
Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Atletic Escaldes vs Vaduz
Competition: Conference League Qualifier
Date: Thursday, 30th July 2026
KO: 3:00 pm
Pick: Over 1.5 (over 1.5 goals)
Odds: 1.19
Confidence: 90%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
0
Atletic Escaldes
0
Draws
1
Vaduz
1
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 1.5 in 100% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Atletic Escaldes
Metric
Vaduz
1.5
Goals For / Game
2
1.6
Goals Against / Game
1.2
30%
Clean Sheets
20%
5-1-4
W — D — L
7-0-3
Win Rate
3.2
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
V0
V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
A0
0-0
4.3%
0-1
7.7%
0-2
6.9%
0-3
4.2%
0-4
1.9%
0-5
0.7%
A1
1-0
5.8%
1-1
10.4%
1-2
9.4%
1-3
5.6%
1-4
2.5%
1-5
0.9%
A2
2-0
3.9%
2-1
7.0%
2-2
6.3%
2-3
3.8%
2-4
1.7%
2-5
0.6%
A3
3-0
1.8%
3-1
3.2%
3-2
2.9%
3-3
1.7%
3-4
0.8%
3-5
0.3%
A4
4-0
0.6%
4-1
1.1%
4-2
1.0%
4-3
0.6%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
A5
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-1(10.4%)
1-2(9.4%)
0-1(7.7%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
A=Home goals ↓ V=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
26%
Home Win & BTTS No
14%
Draw & BTTS Yes
3%
Draw & BTTS No
1%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
36%
Away Win & BTTS No
20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
32%
Home Win & Under 2.5
8%
Draw & Over 2.5
3%
Draw & Under 2.5
1%
Away Win & Over 2.5
45%
Away Win & Under 2.5
11%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Vaduz4
Atletic Escaldes0
Recent Form
Atletic Escaldes
Vaduz4
Atletic Escaldes0
Mornar Bar1
Atletic Escaldes2
Atletic Escaldes2
Mornar Bar1
FC Santa Coloma2
Atletic Escaldes3
Atletic Escaldes2
Penya0
Inter Escaldes3
Atletic Escaldes1
Atletic Escaldes2
Inter Escaldes1
Atletic Escaldes3
Carroi0
FC Rangers3
Atletic Escaldes1
Atletic Escaldes0
Ordino0
Vaduz
Lugano2
Vaduz1
Vaduz4
Atletic Escaldes0
Lugano1
Vaduz2
Altach1
Vaduz0
Vaduz1
A. Lustenau0
Kriens1
Vaduz2
Wil1
Vaduz3
Vaduz1
Aarau2
Etoile-Carouge1
Vaduz2
Vaduz4
Eschen/Mauren3
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Thursday, 30th July 2026, Atletic Escaldes host Vaduz at Estadi Nacional (Andorra la Vella in Conference League Qualifier. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.
Atletic Escaldes arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Vaduz are travelling well, with a record of 7W 0D 3L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Atletic Escaldes, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Vaduz's 1, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.19 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Conference League Qualifier match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 1.5 at @1.19, sitting at roughly 90% in our model. The match gets going at 3:00 pm over at Estadi Nacional (Andorra la Vella.
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Atletic Escaldes vs Vaduz?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.19. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is Atletic Escaldes's current form?
Atletic Escaldes have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Vaduz been performing recently?
Vaduz have recorded 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Atletic Escaldes lead with 0 wins versus Vaduz's 1, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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