A
AZ Alkmaar
Home
L
W
L
D
W
7W 1D 2L
→ Steady
VS
—
5:45 pm
—
AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar)
H
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Away
W
W
D
W
L
5W 2D 3L
→ Steady
Implied Prob
75.2%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-17.2%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — AZ Alkmaar to win
1.33
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Competition: Europa League
Date: Thursday, 15th October 2026
KO: 5:45 pm
Pick: 1 (AZ Alkmaar to win)
Odds: 1.33
Confidence: 58%
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
Neutral
No head-to-head data found.
Stats Duel
Comparison
AZ Alkmaar
Metric
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.2
Goals For / Game
1.4
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.7
40%
Clean Sheets
40%
7-1-2
W — D — L
5-2-3
Win Rate
3.1
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
H0
H1
H2
H3
H4
H5
A0
0-0
4.5%
0-1
5.2%
0-2
3.0%
0-3
1.1%
0-4
0.3%
0-5
0.1%
A1
1-0
8.8%
1-1
10.1%
1-2
5.8%
1-3
2.2%
1-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
A2
2-0
8.6%
2-1
9.9%
2-2
5.7%
2-3
2.2%
2-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
A3
3-0
5.6%
3-1
6.4%
3-2
3.7%
3-3
1.4%
3-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
A4
4-0
2.7%
4-1
3.1%
4-2
1.8%
4-3
0.7%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
A5
5-0
1.1%
5-1
1.2%
5-2
0.7%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
2-1(9.9%)
1-0(8.8%)
2-0(8.6%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
A=Home goals ↓ H=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
23%
Home Win & BTTS No
29%
Draw & BTTS Yes
5%
Draw & BTTS No
6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
17%
Away Win & BTTS No
20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
26%
Home Win & Under 2.5
26%
Draw & Over 2.5
6%
Draw & Under 2.5
6%
Away Win & Over 2.5
19%
Away Win & Under 2.5
19%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
No data found.
Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord2
AZ Alkmaar0
AZ Alkmaar1
Telstar0
Sunderland1
AZ Alkmaar0
AZ Alkmaar1
Willem II1
Heerenveen2
AZ Alkmaar3
AZ Alkmaar5
G.A. Eagles2
Sittard0
AZ Alkmaar2
Utrecht1
AZ Alkmaar4
AZ Alkmaar2
Den Haag0
PSV0
AZ Alkmaar4
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Ironi Tiberias0
H. Beer Sheva2
H. Beer Sheva1
Kiryat Shmona0
H. Beer Sheva0
Din. Zagreb0
Hapoel Petah Tikva0
H. Beer Sheva2
H. Beer Sheva1
Maccabi Tel Aviv4
H. Beer Sheva2
Hapoel Haifa2
Hap. Ramat Gan1
H. Beer Sheva2
Sabah Baku5
H. Beer Sheva2
H. Beer Sheva2
Sabah Baku1
Hapoel Haifa4
H. Beer Sheva0
Match Analysis
Writeup
Let me be honest with you about how this Europa League match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.33, sitting at roughly 49% in our model. The match gets going at 5:45 pm over at AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
Our selection is 1 — AZ Alkmaar to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 58%.
What is AZ Alkmaar's current form?
AZ Alkmaar have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Hapoel Beer Sheva been performing recently?
Hapoel Beer Sheva have recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game.
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