WON Tip WON AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Sittard
A

AZ Alkmaar

Home
L W W W L
6W 0D 4L ▲ Improving
VS
2-0
S
Sittard
Away
L W L W W
4W 1D 5L → Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection · Saturday, 4th April 2026
1
Backing AZ Alkmaar to win
AZ Alkmaar 50%
Draw 30%
Sittard 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 75.2% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -14.2% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — AZ Alkmaar to win
1.33
Over 2.5 Goals90% Over 1.5 Goals95% BTTS — Yes70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
AZ Alkmaar vs Sittard Competition: Eredivisie Date: Saturday, 4th April 2026 Pick: 1 (AZ Alkmaar to win) Odds: 1.33 Confidence: 61% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (90%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%) Also: BTTS — Yes (70%)
Head to Head
Record
8
AZ Alkmaar
0
Draws
2
Sittard
10
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip AZ Alkmaar won 8 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
AZ Alkmaar
Metric
Sittard
2
Goals For / Game
1.6
1.1
Goals Against / Game
2.1
30%
Clean Sheets
0%
6-0-4
W — D — L
4-1-5
Win Rate
60%
40%
3.4
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
90%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
A0
0-0 3.3%
0-1 4.5%
0-2 3.0%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
A1
1-0 6.8%
1-1 9.2%
1-2 6.2%
1-3 2.8%
1-4 1.0%
1-5 0.3%
A2
2-0 7.0%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 6.4%
2-3 2.9%
2-4 1.0%
2-5 0.3%
A3
3-0 4.8%
3-1 6.5%
3-2 4.4%
3-3 2.0%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.2%
A4
4-0 2.5%
4-1 3.3%
4-2 2.2%
4-3 1.0%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
A5
5-0 1.0%
5-1 1.4%
5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.5%) 2-0(7.0%) 1-0(6.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
AZ Alkmaar Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Sittard Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
AZ Alkmaar
Overall
6.0
Scoring
6.7
Defence
6.3
Sittard
Overall
4.3
Scoring
5.3
Defence
3.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 40%
Home Win & BTTS No 17%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 51%
Home Win & Under 2.5 6%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 34%
Away Win & Under 2.5 4%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
21.12.25
Eredivisie: Fortuna Sittard4
AZ Alkmaar3
23.02.25
Eredivisie: AZ Alkmaar1
Fortuna Sittard0
06.10.24
Eredivisie: Fortuna Sittard1
AZ Alkmaar0
17.02.24
Eredivisie: Fortuna Sittard1
AZ Alkmaar2
01.10.23
Eredivisie: AZ Alkmaar4
Fortuna Sittard0
16.04.23
Eredivisie: Fortuna Sittard0
AZ Alkmaar3
22.01.23
Eredivisie: AZ Alkmaar3
Fortuna Sittard1
16.01.22
Eredivisie: Fortuna Sittard1
AZ Alkmaar2
02.12.21
Eredivisie: AZ Alkmaar2
Fortuna Sittard1
08.05.21
Eredivisie: AZ Alkmaar1
Fortuna Sittard0
Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar
22.03.26
ERE: FC Groningen3
AZ Alkmaar0
L
19.03.26
UECL: Sparta Prague0
AZ Alkmaar4
W
15.03.26
ERE: AZ Alkmaar4
Heracles0
W
12.03.26
UECL: AZ Alkmaar2
Sparta Prague1
W
07.03.26
ERE: PSV2
AZ Alkmaar1
L
04.03.26
KNVB: AZ Alkmaar2
Telstar1
W
01.03.26
ERE: FC Utrecht2
AZ Alkmaar0
L
26.02.26
UECL: AZ Alkmaar4
Noah0
W
22.02.26
ERE: AZ Alkmaar3
Sparta Rotterdam1
W
19.02.26
UECL: Noah1
AZ Alkmaar0
L
Sittard
21.03.26
ERE: Fortuna Sittard1
FC Twente2
L
14.03.26
ERE: FC Volendam1
Fortuna Sittard2
W
08.03.26
ERE: Fortuna Sittard1
SC Telstar4
L
28.02.26
ERE: NEC Nijmegen2
Fortuna Sittard3
W
20.02.26
ERE: Fortuna Sittard2
Excelsior1
W
14.02.26
ERE: Ajax4
Fortuna Sittard1
L
07.02.26
ERE: Fortuna Sittard2
Sparta Rotterdam2
D
01.02.26
ERE: Heracles2
Fortuna Sittard1
L
25.01.26
ERE: FC Groningen1
Fortuna Sittard2
W
17.01.26
ERE: Fortuna Sittard1
PSV2
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 4th April 2026, AZ Alkmaar host Sittard in Eredivisie. We recommend AZ Alkmaar to win as the standout selection.

AZ Alkmaar arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Sittard are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 1D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour AZ Alkmaar, who lead the head-to-head with 8 wins to Sittard's 2, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: az alkmaar to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Eredivisie match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.33. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for AZ Alkmaar vs Sittard?
Our selection is 1 — AZ Alkmaar to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 61%.
What is AZ Alkmaar's current form?
AZ Alkmaar have won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Sittard been performing recently?
Sittard have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
AZ Alkmaar lead with 8 wins versus Sittard's 2, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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