B
Bayern Leverkusen
Home
W
D
W
L
W
7W 1D 2L
▲ Improving
VS
—
2:30 pm
—
BayArena (Leverkusen)
R
RB Leipzig
Away
W
L
L
W
W
6W 0D 4L
▲ Improving
Implied Prob
70.9%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+6.1%
Value detected
Kelly %
20.9%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.41
Over 2.5 Goals85%
Over 1.5 Goals95%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Bayern Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig
Competition: German Bundesliga
Date: Sunday, 20th September 2026
KO: 2:30 pm
Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals)
Odds: 1.41
Confidence: 77%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (85%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%)
Head to Head
Record
6
Bayern Leverkusen
1
Draws
3
RB Leipzig
10
Meetings
3.7
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 2.5 in 70% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Bayern Leverkusen
Metric
RB Leipzig
2.6
Goals For / Game
2.4
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.3
50%
Clean Sheets
50%
7-1-2
W — D — L
6-0-4
Win Rate
3.6
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
B0
0-0
2.7%
0-1
4.5%
0-2
3.7%
0-3
2.1%
0-4
0.8%
0-5
0.3%
B1
1-0
5.3%
1-1
8.8%
1-2
7.3%
1-3
4.0%
1-4
1.7%
1-5
0.5%
B2
2-0
5.2%
2-1
8.6%
2-2
7.1%
2-3
3.9%
2-4
1.6%
2-5
0.5%
B3
3-0
3.4%
3-1
5.6%
3-2
4.6%
3-3
2.5%
3-4
1.0%
3-5
0.3%
B4
4-0
1.7%
4-1
2.7%
4-2
2.2%
4-3
1.2%
4-4
0.5%
4-5
0.2%
B5
5-0
0.6%
5-1
1.1%
5-2
0.9%
5-3
0.5%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.1%
Top Scores
1-1(8.8%)
2-1(8.6%)
1-2(7.3%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
B=Home goals ↓ R=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
23%
Home Win & BTTS No
29%
Draw & BTTS Yes
2%
Draw & BTTS No
2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
20%
Away Win & BTTS No
24%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
44%
Home Win & Under 2.5
8%
Draw & Over 2.5
3%
Draw & Under 2.5
1%
Away Win & Over 2.5
37%
Away Win & Under 2.5
7%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Bayer Leverkusen4
RB Leipzig1
RB Leipzig1
Bayer Leverkusen3
RB Leipzig2
Bayer Leverkusen2
Bayer Leverkusen2
RB Leipzig3
RB Leipzig2
Bayer Leverkusen3
Bayer Leverkusen3
RB Leipzig2
Bayer Leverkusen2
RB Leipzig0
RB Leipzig2
Bayer Leverkusen0
Bayer Leverkusen0
RB Leipzig1
RB Leipzig1
Bayer Leverkusen3
Recent Form
Bayern Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen2
Celje0
Augsburg2
Bayer Leverkusen2
Bayer Leverkusen4
Union Berlin0
Elversberg3
Bayer Leverkusen2
Wehen0
Bayer Leverkusen4
Newcastle1
Bayer Leverkusen2
Nottingham2
Bayer Leverkusen1
Bayer Leverkusen2
Sevilla1
Bayer Leverkusen3
RW Essen0
Bayer Leverkusen4
Genk0
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig5
Hamburger SV0
Como4
RB Leipzig1
Werder Bremen3
RB Leipzig1
RB Leipzig3
B. Monchengladbach0
Eintracht Trier0
RB Leipzig6
Bayern Munich3
RB Leipzig1
Leeds2
RB Leipzig0
RB Leipzig4
Verl0
RB Leipzig1
Ingolstadt0
Altglienicke1
RB Leipzig2
Match Analysis
Writeup
Let me be honest with you about how this German Bundesliga match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 2.5 at @1.41, sitting at roughly close to 75 in our model. The match gets going at 2:30 pm over at BayArena (Leverkusen).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Bayern Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.41. Tip confidence rating: 77%.
What is Bayern Leverkusen's current form?
Bayern Leverkusen have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has RB Leipzig been performing recently?
RB Leipzig have recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Bayern Leverkusen lead with 6 wins versus RB Leipzig's 3, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
Bet Responsibly. StraightWinOdds provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.