B
Bayern Munich
Home
W
D
D
W
W
7W 3D 0L
▲ Improving
VS
—
8:00 pm
—
Allianz Arena (Munich)
A
Arsenal
Away
W
W
W
L
W
9W 0D 1L
→ Steady
Implied Prob
60.2%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+13.8%
Value detected
Kelly %
34.6%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.66
Over 2.5 Goals75%
Over 1.5 Goals80%
Arsenal Clean Sheet60%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal
Competition: UEFA Champions League
Date: Wednesday, 21st October 2026
KO: 8:00 pm
Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals)
Odds: 1.66
Confidence: 74%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (75%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Also: Arsenal Clean Sheet (60%)
Head to Head
Record
4
Bayern Munich
3
Draws
3
Arsenal
10
Meetings
3.6
Avg Goals
80%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 2.5 in 60% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Bayern Munich
Metric
Arsenal
3.6
Goals For / Game
1.9
1
Goals Against / Game
0.7
30%
Clean Sheets
60%
7-3-0
W — D — L
9-0-1
Win Rate
3.6
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
B0
0-0
2.7%
0-1
4.0%
0-2
2.9%
0-3
1.4%
0-4
0.5%
0-5
0.2%
B1
1-0
5.9%
1-1
8.5%
1-2
6.2%
1-3
3.0%
1-4
1.1%
1-5
0.3%
B2
2-0
6.3%
2-1
9.2%
2-2
6.6%
2-3
3.2%
2-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
B3
3-0
4.5%
3-1
6.6%
3-2
4.8%
3-3
2.3%
3-4
0.8%
3-5
0.2%
B4
4-0
2.4%
4-1
3.5%
4-2
2.6%
4-3
1.2%
4-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
B5
5-0
1.1%
5-1
1.5%
5-2
1.1%
5-3
0.5%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.1%
Top Scores
2-1(9.2%)
1-1(8.5%)
2-2(6.6%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
B=Home goals ↓ A=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
20%
Home Win & BTTS No
20%
Draw & BTTS Yes
5%
Draw & BTTS No
5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
26%
Away Win & BTTS No
26%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
30%
Home Win & Under 2.5
10%
Draw & Over 2.5
7%
Draw & Under 2.5
2%
Away Win & Over 2.5
38%
Away Win & Under 2.5
13%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Arsenal3
Bayern Munich1
Bayern Munich1
Arsenal0
Arsenal2
Bayern Munich2
Arsenal2
Bayern Munich1
Bayern Munich1
Arsenal (2-3)1
Arsenal1
Bayern Munich5
Bayern Munich5
Arsenal1
Bayern Munich5
Arsenal1
Arsenal2
Bayern Munich0
Bayern Munich1
Arsenal1
Recent Form
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich6
RB Leipzig1
Viking3
Bayern Munich3
Augsburg2
Bayern Munich2
Bayern Munich7
Union Berlin0
Elversberg1
Bayern Munich2
Bayern Munich5
Bodo/Glimt0
Schalke0
Bayern Munich0
VfL Osnabruck1
Bayern Munich4
Bayern Munich5
Stuttgart1
Dortmund1
Bayern Munich2
Arsenal
Nottingham0
Arsenal1
Arsenal3
Lille0
Arsenal2
Leeds1
Brighton3
Arsenal0
Ipswich2
Arsenal4
Sunderland0
Arsenal2
Napoli0
Arsenal1
Arsenal2
Chelsea1
Aston Villa0
Arsenal1
Arsenal3
Coventry0
Match Analysis
Writeup
Let me be honest with you about how this UEFA Champions League match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 2.5 at @1.66, sitting at roughly roughly 82 in our model. The match gets going at 8:00 pm over at Allianz Arena (Munich).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Bayern Munich vs Arsenal?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.66. Tip confidence rating: 74%.
What is Bayern Munich's current form?
Bayern Munich have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Arsenal been performing recently?
Arsenal have recorded 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Bayern Munich lead with 4 wins versus Arsenal's 3, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
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