C
Colwyn Bay
Home
L
W
L
D
L
4W 2D 3L
▲ Improving
VS
—
7:30 pm
—
N/A
R
Rhyl
Away
L
L
W
L
W
4W 0D 6L
▲ Improving
Implied Prob
65.4%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+12.6%
Value detected
Kelly %
36.5%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
2
Colwyn Bay
0
Draws
0
Rhyl
2
Meetings
3.5
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 2.5 in 100% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Colwyn Bay
Metric
Rhyl
1.6
Goals For / Game
1.2
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1.8
33%
Clean Sheets
30%
4-2-3
W — D — L
4-0-6
Win Rate
2.8
Avg Goals
79%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
47%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
C0
0-0
5.8%
0-1
6.7%
0-2
3.8%
0-3
1.5%
0-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
C1
1-0
9.8%
1-1
11.3%
1-2
6.5%
1-3
2.5%
1-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
C2
2-0
8.4%
2-1
9.6%
2-2
5.5%
2-3
2.1%
2-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
C3
3-0
4.7%
3-1
5.5%
3-2
3.1%
3-3
1.2%
3-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
C4
4-0
2.0%
4-1
2.3%
4-2
1.3%
4-3
0.5%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.0%
C5
5-0
0.7%
5-1
0.8%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-1(11.3%)
1-0(9.8%)
2-1(9.6%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
C=Home goals ↓ R=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
22%
Home Win & BTTS No
24%
Draw & BTTS Yes
6%
Draw & BTTS No
6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
20%
Away Win & BTTS No
22%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
29%
Home Win & Under 2.5
17%
Draw & Over 2.5
8%
Draw & Under 2.5
4%
Away Win & Over 2.5
26%
Away Win & Under 2.5
16%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Rhyl0
Colwyn Bay3
Rhyl1
Colwyn Bay3
Recent Form
Colwyn Bay
Colwyn Bay1
Denbigh2
Bala0
Colwyn Bay4
Connahs Q.1
Colwyn Bay1
Colwyn Bay0
Caernarfon2
Penybont0
Colwyn Bay0
TNS0
Colwyn Bay2
Colwyn Bay3
Barry1
Caernarfon3
Colwyn Bay0
Colwyn Bay3
Penybont1
Rhyl
Flint3
Rhyl2
Penrhyncoch3
Rhyl0
Rhyl1
Gresford0
Rhyl1
Guilsfield2
Rhyl3
Denbigh0
Newtown6
Rhyl1
Caersws FC1
Rhyl0
Brickfield1
Rhyl2
Flint Mountain0
Rhyl1
Rhyl1
Caernarfon2
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Monday, 6th July 2026, Colwyn Bay host Rhyl at N/A in Club Friendly. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.
Colwyn Bay arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 9 outings.
Rhyl are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 0D 6L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Colwyn Bay, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Rhyl's 0, with 0 draws from 2 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.53 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Club Friendly match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 2.5 at @1.53, sitting at roughly 80% in our model. The match gets going at 7:30 pm over at N/A.
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Colwyn Bay vs Rhyl?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.53. Tip confidence rating: 78%.
What is Colwyn Bay's current form?
Colwyn Bay have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 9 matches.
How has Rhyl been performing recently?
Rhyl have recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Colwyn Bay lead with 2 wins versus Rhyl's 0, with 0 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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