C
Croatia U19
Home
L
L
D
W
W
5W 2D 3L
→ Steady
VS
—
2:00 pm
—
The Oval (Caernarfon)
I
Italy U19
Away
W
W
D
W
D
6W 3D 1L
▼ Declining
Implied Prob
82%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-4%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.22
BTTS — No65%
Italy U19 Clean Sheet60%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Croatia U19 vs Italy U19
Competition: Euro U19
Date: Saturday, 7th February 2026
KO: 2:00 pm
Pick: Over 1.5 (over 1.5 goals)
Odds: 1.22
Confidence: 78%
Also: BTTS — No (65%)
Also: Italy U19 Clean Sheet (60%)
Head to Head
Record
2
Croatia U19
4
Draws
3
Italy U19
9
Meetings
2.8
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 1.5 in 67% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Croatia U19
Metric
Italy U19
1.4
Goals For / Game
1.6
1.3
Goals Against / Game
0.4
40%
Clean Sheets
60%
5-2-3
W — D — L
6-3-1
Win Rate
2.4
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
I0
I1
I2
I3
I4
I5
C0
0-0
9.5%
0-1
13.8%
0-2
10.0%
0-3
4.9%
0-4
1.8%
0-5
0.5%
C1
1-0
8.6%
1-1
12.5%
1-2
9.0%
1-3
4.4%
1-4
1.6%
1-5
0.5%
C2
2-0
3.9%
2-1
5.6%
2-2
4.1%
2-3
2.0%
2-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
C3
3-0
1.2%
3-1
1.7%
3-2
1.2%
3-3
0.6%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.1%
C4
4-0
0.3%
4-1
0.4%
4-2
0.3%
4-3
0.1%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
C5
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
0-1(13.8%)
1-1(12.5%)
0-2(10.0%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
C=Home goals ↓ I=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
13%
Home Win & BTTS No
24%
Draw & BTTS Yes
7%
Draw & BTTS No
12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
15%
Away Win & BTTS No
29%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
15%
Home Win & Under 2.5
22%
Draw & Over 2.5
8%
Draw & Under 2.5
11%
Away Win & Over 2.5
18%
Away Win & Under 2.5
26%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Croatia U190
Italy U190
Croatia U192
Italy U192
Italy U193
Croatia U192
Italy U192
Croatia U192
Italy U191
Croatia U192
Croatia U191
Italy U190
Croatia U191
Italy U193
Croatia U190
Italy U190
Italy U193
Croatia U191
Recent Form
Croatia U19
Croatia U191
Ukraine U193
Croatia U190
England U192
France U191
Croatia U191
Croatia U191
Bulgaria U190
Croatia U191
Norway U190
Spain U194
Croatia U190
Croatia U194
Switzerland U191
Croatia U190
Czech Republic U190
Croatia U194
Latvia U192
Croatia U192
Greece U190
Italy U19
Italy U192
Serbia U190
Ireland U191
Italy U192
Turkey U191
Italy U191
Italy U193
Slovakia U190
Italy U191
Poland U191
Italy U193
Hungary U190
Italy U193
Scotland U190
Italy U190
Spain U191
Poland U190
Italy U191
Italy U190
Bosnia & Herzegovina U190
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Saturday, 7th February 2026, Croatia U19 host Italy U19 at The Oval (Caernarfon) in Euro U19. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.
Croatia U19 arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Italy U19 are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 3D 1L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Croatia U19, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Italy U19's 3, with 4 draws from 9 encounters. Both teams have scored in 67% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.22 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Euro U19 match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 1.5 at @1.22, sitting at roughly 90% in our model. The match gets going at 2:00 pm over at The Oval (Caernarfon).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Croatia U19 vs Italy U19?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.22. Tip confidence rating: 78%.
What is Croatia U19's current form?
Croatia U19 have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Italy U19 been performing recently?
Italy U19 have recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Croatia U19 lead with 2 wins versus Italy U19's 3, with 4 draws across 9 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
Bet Responsibly. StraightWinOdds provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.