WON Tip WON Erbil 2-0 Diyala
E

Erbil

Home
W W W W L
5W 2D 3L ▼ Declining
VS
2-0
D
Diyala
Away
D L L L D
1W 4D 5L ▼ Declining
StraightWinOdds Selection · Monday, 23rd March 2026
1X
Backing Erbil to win or draw
Implied Prob 82.6% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +17.4% Value detected
Kelly % 100% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1X — Erbil to win or draw
1.21
Under 2.5 Goals85% BTTS — No65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Erbil vs Diyala Competition: Iraq Stars League Date: Monday, 23rd March 2026 Pick: 1X (Erbil to win or draw) Odds: 1.21 Confidence: 100% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (85%) Also: BTTS — No (65%)
Head to Head
Record
6
Erbil
2
Draws
1
Diyala
9
Meetings
2.4
Avg Goals
22%
BTTS
44%
Over 2.5
Neutral Insufficient H2H data.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Erbil
Metric
Diyala
0.9
Goals For / Game
0.4
0.5
Goals Against / Game
0.7
20%
Clean Sheets
0%
5-2-3
W — D — L
1-4-5
Win Rate
50%
10%
1.3
Avg Goals
45%
Over 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
D0
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
E0
0-0 28.7%
0-1 12.9%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 0.4%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
E1
1-0 22.9%
1-1 10.3%
1-2 2.3%
1-3 0.4%
1-4 0.0%
1-5 0.0%
E2
2-0 9.2%
2-1 4.1%
2-2 0.9%
2-3 0.1%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
E3
3-0 2.4%
3-1 1.1%
3-2 0.3%
3-3 0.0%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
E4
4-0 0.5%
4-1 0.2%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
E5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-0(28.7%) 1-0(22.9%) 1-1(10.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip E=Home goals ↓   D=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Erbil
Overall
5.6
Scoring
3.0
Defence
8.3
Diyala
Overall
2.2
Scoring
1.3
Defence
7.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Home Win & BTTS No 36%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 21%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 4%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 8%
Home Win & Under 2.5 48%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 28%
Away Win & Over 2.5 2%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
22.12.25
SL: Diyala1
Erbil1
12.05.25
SL: Diyala1
Erbil0
20.09.24
SL: Erbil2
Diyala1
16.04.11
SL: Erbil4
Diyala0
31.03.11
SL: Diyala0
Erbil0
15.06.10
SL: Erbil5
Diyala0
27.02.10
SL: Diyala0
Erbil3
10.05.09
SL: Erbil2
Diyala0
17.01.09
SL: Diyala0
Erbil2
Recent Form
Erbil
18.03.26
SL: DUH0
ERB2
W
13.03.26
SL: ERB3
MIN2
W
07.03.26
SL: KAR2
ERB3
W
21.02.26
SL: QAS0
ERB2
W
14.02.26
SL: ERB0
ZAK1
L
05.02.26
SL: ERB3
NFT1
W
31.01.26
SL: BAG1
ERB1
D
27.01.26
SL: KRK1
ERB1
D
23.01.26
SL: ERB0
TAL2
L
17.01.26
SL: ZAW1
ERB0
L
Diyala
18.03.26
SL: MIN1
DIY1
D
13.03.26
SL: DIY0
QWJ1
L
07.03.26
SL: DIY0
KAH2
L
21.02.26
SL: SHR2
DIY1
L
14.02.26
SL: DIY1
KAR1
D
04.02.26
SL: DIY1
KRK0
W
31.01.26
SL: NWZ2
DIY1
L
27.01.26
SL: TAL1
DIY1
D
22.01.26
SL: DIY1
AGF1
D
17.01.26
SL: DUH1
DIY0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Monday, 23rd March 2026, Erbil host Diyala in Iraq Stars League. We recommend Erbil to win or draw as the standout selection.

Erbil arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Diyala are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 4D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Erbil, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Diyala's 1, with 2 draws from 9 encounters. Both teams have scored in 22% of those meetings.

Our verdict: erbil to win or draw at odds of 1.21 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Iraq Stars League match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1X, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.21. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Erbil vs Diyala?
Our selection is 1X — Erbil to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.21. Tip confidence rating: 100%.
What is Erbil's current form?
Erbil have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Diyala been performing recently?
Diyala have recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Erbil lead with 6 wins versus Diyala's 1, with 2 draws across 9 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 22%.
⚠️
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