E
Essendon Royals SC
Home
D
W
D
W
W
6W 2D 2L
โ Steady
VS
โ
11:30 am
โ
N/A
K
Kingston City
Away
L
D
W
L
W
1W 1D 8L
โฒ Improving
Essendon Royals SC
50%
Draw
30%
Kingston City
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
78.1%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-16.1%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 โ Essendon Royals SC to win
1.28
Over 2.5 Goals65%
Over 1.5 Goals90%
๐ Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Essendon Royals SC vs Kingston City
Competition: Australia Victoria PL 2
Date: Friday, 24th July 2026
KO: 11:30 am
Pick: 1 (Essendon Royals SC to win)
Odds: 1.28
Confidence: 62%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Essendon Royals SC
0
Draws
0
Kingston City
1
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Essendon Royals SC won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Essendon Royals SC
Metric
Kingston City
2.8
Goals For / Game
0.7
1.2
Goals Against / Game
2.9
10%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-2-2
W โ D โ L
1-1-8
Win Rate
3.8
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
K0
K1
K2
K3
K4
K5
E0
0-0
2.2%
0-1
2.1%
0-2
1.0%
0-3
0.3%
0-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
E1
1-0
6.4%
1-1
6.1%
1-2
2.9%
1-3
0.9%
1-4
0.2%
1-5
0.0%
E2
2-0
9.1%
2-1
8.6%
2-2
4.1%
2-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
E3
3-0
8.6%
3-1
8.2%
3-2
3.9%
3-3
1.2%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
E4
4-0
6.2%
4-1
5.8%
4-2
2.8%
4-3
0.9%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.0%
E5
5-0
3.5%
5-1
3.3%
5-2
1.6%
5-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
2-0(9.1%)
2-1(8.6%)
3-0(8.6%)
โ Best match
โ Possible
โ Low ยท โ Contradicts tip
E=Home goals โ K=Away โ
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Essendon Royals SC Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Kingston City Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
39%
Home Win & BTTS No
32%
Draw & BTTS Yes
10%
Draw & BTTS No
8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
6%
Away Win & BTTS No
5%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
46%
Home Win & Under 2.5
25%
Draw & Over 2.5
12%
Draw & Under 2.5
6%
Away Win & Over 2.5
7%
Away Win & Under 2.5
4%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
โ
Kelly %
โ
Stake
โ
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Kingston City0
Essendon Royals SC3
Recent Form
Essendon Royals SC
Whittlesea United1
Essendon Royals SC1
Essendon Royals SC3
Box Hill2
Bayside Argonauts1
Essendon Royals SC1
Essendon Royals SC3
Werribee City2
Malvern2
Essendon Royals SC4
Essendon Royals SC8
Springvale0
Goulburn Valley Suns1
Essendon Royals SC0
Essendon Royals SC5
Nunawading City1
Essendon Royals SC3
Moreland City1
Keilor Park1
Essendon Royals SC0
Kingston City
Kingston City2
Goulburn Valley Suns3
Whittlesea United1
Kingston City1
Kingston City4
Nunawading City0
Box Hill3
Kingston City1
Kingston City2
Moreland City1
Bayside Argonauts5
Kingston City0
Keilor Park2
Kingston City0
Kingston City0
Werribee City2
Kingston City0
Eastern Lions4
Kingston City0
Malvern5
Essendon Royals SC (Home)
Essendon Royals SC3
Box Hill2
Essendon Royals SC3
Werribee City2
Essendon Royals SC8
Springvale0
Essendon Royals SC5
Nunawading City1
Essendon Royals SC3
Moreland City1
Essendon Royals SC2
Eastern Lions1
Essendon Royals SC4
Whittlesea United3
Essendon Royals SC1
Bayside Argonauts4
Essendon Royals SC1
Malvern2
Essendon Royals SC2
Goulburn Valley Suns3
Kingston City (Away)
Whittlesea United1
Kingston City1
Box Hill3
Kingston City1
Bayside Argonauts5
Kingston City0
Keilor Park2
Kingston City0
Springvale3
Kingston City2
Goulburn Valley Suns2
Kingston City0
Nunawading City2
Kingston City1
Werribee City1
Kingston City2
Melbourne City U216
Kingston City0
Northcote City7
Kingston City1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Friday, 24th July 2026, Essendon Royals SC host Kingston City at N/A in Australia Victoria PL 2. We recommend Essendon Royals SC to win as the standout selection.
Essendon Royals SC arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Kingston City are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 1D 8L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Essendon Royals SC, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Kingston City's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.
Our verdict: essendon royals sc to win at odds of 1.28 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Australia Victoria PL 2 match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.28, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 11:30 am over at N/A.
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today โ but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Essendon Royals SC vs Kingston City?
Our selection is 1 โ Essendon Royals SC to win, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 62%.
What is Essendon Royals SC's current form?
Essendon Royals SC have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Kingston City been performing recently?
Kingston City have recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Essendon Royals SC lead with 1 wins versus Kingston City's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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