LOST
Tip LOST
FC Porto 1-0 Alverca
F
FC Porto
Home
W
D
W
L
W
6W 3D 1L
โฒ Improving
VS
1-0
A
Alverca
Away
W
L
W
W
L
3W 5D 2L
โ Steady
Implied Prob
87.7%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-8.7%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 โ over 1.5 goals
1.14
Over 1.5 Goals80%
๐ Betting Slip / Acca Builder
FC Porto vs Alverca
Competition: Portugal Liga
Date: Saturday, 2nd May 2026
Pick: Over 1.5 (over 1.5 goals)
Odds: 1.14
Confidence: 79%
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
7
FC Porto
3
Draws
0
Alverca
10
Meetings
2.4
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 1.5 in 60% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
FC Porto
Metric
Alverca
1.7
Goals For / Game
1.3
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.3
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-3-1
W โ D โ L
3-5-2
Win Rate
2.5
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
F0
0-0
8.2%
0-1
8.2%
0-2
4.1%
0-3
1.4%
0-4
0.3%
0-5
0.1%
F1
1-0
12.3%
1-1
12.3%
1-2
6.2%
1-3
2.1%
1-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
F2
2-0
9.2%
2-1
9.2%
2-2
4.6%
2-3
1.5%
2-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
F3
3-0
4.6%
3-1
4.6%
3-2
2.3%
3-3
0.8%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.0%
F4
4-0
1.7%
4-1
1.7%
4-2
0.9%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
F5
5-0
0.5%
5-1
0.5%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(12.3%)
1-1(12.3%)
2-0(9.2%)
โ Best match
โ Possible
โ Low ยท โ Contradicts tip
F=Home goals โ A=Away โ
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
30%
Home Win & BTTS No
16%
Draw & BTTS Yes
20%
Draw & BTTS No
11%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
15%
Away Win & BTTS No
8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
23%
Home Win & Under 2.5
23%
Draw & Over 2.5
16%
Draw & Under 2.5
16%
Away Win & Over 2.5
12%
Away Win & Under 2.5
12%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
โ
Kelly %
โ
Stake
โ
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Alverca0
FC Porto3
FC Porto1
Alverca0
Alverca1
FC Porto2
FC Porto0
Alverca0
Alverca0
FC Porto1
Alverca1
FC Porto3
FC Porto6
Alverca0
Alverca1
FC Porto1
FC Porto0
Alverca0
FC Porto3
Alverca1
Recent Form
FC Porto
Estrela1
FC Porto2
FC Porto0
Sporting CP0
FC Porto2
Tondela0
Nottingham1
FC Porto0
Estoril1
FC Porto3
FC Porto1
Nottingham1
FC Porto2
Famalicao2
Braga1
FC Porto2
FC Porto2
Stuttgart0
FC Porto3
Moreirense0
Alverca
Alverca2
Arouca1
Nacional1
Alverca0
Alverca3
Casa Pia1
Rio Ave1
Alverca2
Alverca1
Sporting CP4
Gil Vicente2
Alverca2
Alverca0
AFS0
Vitoria Guimaraes1
Alverca1
Alverca1
Santa Clara1
Tondela1
Alverca1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Saturday, 2nd May 2026, FC Porto host Alverca in Portugal Liga. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.
FC Porto arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Alverca are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 5D 2L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour FC Porto, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Alverca's 0, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.14 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Portugal Liga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.
Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.
Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.
On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.
Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing Over 1.5, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.14. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for FC Porto vs Alverca?
Our selection is Over 1.5 โ over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.14. Tip confidence rating: 79%.
What is FC Porto's current form?
FC Porto have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Alverca been performing recently?
Alverca have recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
FC Porto lead with 7 wins versus Alverca's 0, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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