LOST Tip LOST Flora 1-0 Narva
F

Flora

Home
W W W L W
6W 0D 4L ▼ Declining
VS
1-0
N
Narva
Away
L L L L L
3W 0D 7L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Tuesday, 5th May 2026
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob 68.5% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +15.5% Value detected
Kelly % 49.2% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.46
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Flora vs Narva Competition: Estonian Cup Date: Tuesday, 5th May 2026 Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.46 Confidence: 84% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Head to Head
Record
7
Flora
3
Draws
0
Narva
10
Meetings
4.1
Avg Goals
80%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 2.5 in 80% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Flora
Metric
Narva
2.1
Goals For / Game
1.2
1.3
Goals Against / Game
3
30%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-0-4
W — D — L
3-0-7
Win Rate
60%
30%
3.8
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
N0
N1
N2
N3
N4
N5
F0
0-0 2.2%
0-1 2.8%
0-2 1.8%
0-3 0.7%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.1%
F1
1-0 5.7%
1-1 7.1%
1-2 4.5%
1-3 1.9%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.2%
F2
2-0 7.3%
2-1 9.1%
2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.4%
2-4 0.7%
2-5 0.2%
F3
3-0 6.2%
3-1 7.7%
3-2 4.8%
3-3 2.0%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.2%
F4
4-0 3.9%
4-1 4.9%
4-2 3.1%
4-3 1.3%
4-4 0.4%
4-5 0.1%
F5
5-0 2.0%
5-1 2.5%
5-2 1.6%
5-3 0.7%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 2-1(9.1%) 3-1(7.7%) 2-0(7.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip F=Home goals ↓   N=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Flora
Overall
6.0
Scoring
7.0
Defence
5.7
Narva
Overall
3.0
Scoring
4.0
Defence
0.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Home Win & BTTS No 37%
Draw & BTTS Yes 0%
Draw & BTTS No 0%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 54%
Home Win & Under 2.5 13%
Draw & Over 2.5 0%
Draw & Under 2.5 0%
Away Win & Over 2.5 26%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
22.04.26ML
Flora6
Narva0
21.10.25ML
Flora4
Narva0
02.08.25ML
Narva1
Flora1
18.06.25ML
Narva1
Flora2
01.03.25ML
Flora2
Narva2
17.09.24ML
Narva1
Flora1
03.08.24ML
Flora3
Narva1
18.05.24ML
Narva1
Flora3
06.04.24ML
Flora4
Narva3
25.02.24SC
Flora3
Narva2
Recent Form
Flora
30.04.26ML
Flora5
Harju JK Laagri0
W
26.04.26ML
Paide1
Flora2
W
22.04.26ML
Flora6
Narva0
W
19.04.26ML
Levadia4
Flora0
L
12.04.26ML
Flora2
Parnu JK Vaprus0
W
07.04.26ML
Flora2
Kuressaare1
W
03.04.26ML
Tammeka3
Flora1
L
22.03.26ML
Harju JK Laagri2
Flora0
L
15.03.26ML
Flora0
Kalju1
L
10.03.26CUP
Flora3
Nomme Utd1
W
Narva
01.05.26ML
Narva0
Kalju3
L
26.04.26ML
Levadia7
Narva0
L
22.04.26ML
Flora6
Narva0
L
18.04.26ML
Narva1
Kuressaare2
L
11.04.26ML
Nomme Utd5
Narva1
L
07.04.26ML
Narva3
Tammeka0
W
03.04.26ML
Kalju2
Narva1
L
21.03.26ML
Narva2
Parnu JK Vaprus1
W
15.03.26ML
Paide1
Narva0
L
11.03.26CUP
Narva4
Viimsi JK3
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Tuesday, 5th May 2026, Flora host Narva in Estonian Cup. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Flora arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Narva are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 0D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Flora, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Narva's 0, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 80% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.46 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Estonian Cup match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing Over 2.5, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.46. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Flora vs Narva?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.46. Tip confidence rating: 84%.
What is Flora's current form?
Flora have won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Narva been performing recently?
Narva have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Flora lead with 7 wins versus Narva's 0, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
⚠️
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