F
France
Home
W
W
W
W
L
8W 1D 1L
→ Steady
VS
—
10:00 pm
MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)
S
Sweden
Away
D
L
W
D
L
3W 3D 4L
▼ Declining
France
50%
Draw
30%
Sweden
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
76.9%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-14.9%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — France to win
1.30
Over 2.5 Goals85%
Over 1.5 Goals95%
BTTS — Yes85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
France vs Sweden
Competition: World Cup 2026
Date: Tuesday, 30th June 2026
KO: 10:00 pm
Pick: 1 (France to win)
Odds: 1.30
Confidence: 62%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (85%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%)
Also: BTTS — Yes (85%)
Head to Head
Record
6
France
2
Draws
2
Sweden
10
Meetings
2.4
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
France won 6 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
France
Metric
Sweden
2.8
Goals For / Game
1.8
1
Goals Against / Game
2.1
20%
Clean Sheets
0%
8-1-1
W — D — L
3-3-4
Win Rate
3.9
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
85%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
F0
0-0
2.1%
0-1
3.0%
0-2
2.1%
0-3
1.0%
0-4
0.3%
0-5
0.1%
F1
1-0
5.2%
1-1
7.3%
1-2
5.1%
1-3
2.4%
1-4
0.8%
1-5
0.2%
F2
2-0
6.4%
2-1
8.9%
2-2
6.3%
2-3
2.9%
2-4
1.0%
2-5
0.3%
F3
3-0
5.2%
3-1
7.3%
3-2
5.1%
3-3
2.4%
3-4
0.8%
3-5
0.2%
F4
4-0
3.2%
4-1
4.5%
4-2
3.1%
4-3
1.5%
4-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
F5
5-0
1.6%
5-1
2.2%
5-2
1.5%
5-3
0.7%
5-4
0.3%
5-5
0.1%
Top Scores
2-1(8.9%)
3-1(7.3%)
2-0(6.4%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
F=Home goals ↓ S=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
France Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Sweden Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
53%
Home Win & BTTS No
9%
Draw & BTTS Yes
13%
Draw & BTTS No
2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
20%
Away Win & BTTS No
3%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
53%
Home Win & Under 2.5
9%
Draw & Over 2.5
13%
Draw & Under 2.5
2%
Away Win & Over 2.5
20%
Away Win & Under 2.5
3%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
France4
Sweden2
Sweden0
France1
Sweden2
France1
France2
Sweden1
France1
Sweden0
Sweden2
France0
Sweden2
France3
France1
Sweden1
Sweden0
France0
France1
Sweden0
Recent Form
France
Norway1
France |4
France3
Iraq |0
France3
Senegal |1
France3
Northern Ireland |1
France1
Ivory Coast |2
Colombia1
France |3
Brazil1
France |2
Azerbaijan1
France |3
France4
Ukraine |0
Iceland2
France |2
Sweden
Japan1
Sweden |1
Netherlands5
Sweden |1
Sweden5
Tunisia |1
Sweden2
Greece |2
Norway3
Sweden |1
Sweden3
Poland |2
Ukraine1
Sweden |3
Sweden1
Slovenia |1
Switzerland4
Sweden |1
Sweden0
Kosovo |1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Tuesday, 30th June 2026, France host Sweden at MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ) in World Cup 2026. We recommend France to win as the standout selection.
France arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Sweden are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 3D 4L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour France, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Sweden's 2, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.
Our verdict: france to win at odds of 1.30 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this World Cup 2026 match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.30, sitting at roughly 80% in our model. The match gets going at 10:00 pm over at MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for France vs Sweden?
Our selection is 1 — France to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 62%.
What is France's current form?
France have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Sweden been performing recently?
Sweden have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
France lead with 6 wins versus Sweden's 2, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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