F
Fylkir
Home
W
W
W
L
W
7W 0D 3L
▼ Declining
VS
—
8:30 pm
—
Fylkisvöllur (Reykjavík)
A
Afturelding
Away
W
W
W
W
W
8W 0D 2L
→ Steady
Implied Prob
71.4%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+4.6%
Value detected
Kelly %
16%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.40
Over 2.5 Goals75%
Over 1.5 Goals90%
BTTS — Yes70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Fylkir vs Afturelding
Competition: Icelandic Cup
Date: Tuesday, 21st July 2026
KO: 8:30 pm
Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals)
Odds: 1.40
Confidence: 76%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (75%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Also: BTTS — Yes (70%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Fylkir
1
Draws
1
Afturelding
3
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 2.5 in 67% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Fylkir
Metric
Afturelding
2.8
Goals For / Game
3.2
1.9
Goals Against / Game
1.1
20%
Clean Sheets
20%
7-0-3
W — D — L
8-0-2
Win Rate
4.5
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
F0
0-0
1.1%
0-1
2.8%
0-2
3.6%
0-3
3.1%
0-4
2.0%
0-5
1.0%
F1
1-0
2.2%
1-1
5.5%
1-2
7.0%
1-3
6.0%
1-4
3.8%
1-5
2.0%
F2
2-0
2.1%
2-1
5.4%
2-2
6.9%
2-3
5.8%
2-4
3.7%
2-5
1.9%
F3
3-0
1.4%
3-1
3.5%
3-2
4.5%
3-3
3.8%
3-4
2.4%
3-5
1.2%
F4
4-0
0.7%
4-1
1.7%
4-2
2.2%
4-3
1.9%
4-4
1.2%
4-5
0.6%
F5
5-0
0.3%
5-1
0.7%
5-2
0.9%
5-3
0.7%
5-4
0.5%
5-5
0.2%
Top Scores
1-2(7.0%)
2-2(6.9%)
1-3(6.0%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
F=Home goals ↓ A=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
33%
Home Win & BTTS No
14%
Draw & BTTS Yes
0%
Draw & BTTS No
0%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
37%
Away Win & BTTS No
16%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
35%
Home Win & Under 2.5
12%
Draw & Over 2.5
0%
Draw & Under 2.5
0%
Away Win & Over 2.5
40%
Away Win & Under 2.5
13%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Afturelding5
Fylkir1
Afturelding0
Fylkir2
Fylkir2
Afturelding2
Recent Form
Fylkir
Fylkir4
Njardvik1
Vestri2
Fylkir5
Aegir2
Fylkir4
Fylkir0
Kopavogur2
Grotta2
Fylkir5
Grindavik0
Fylkir1
Fylkir4
Grotta2
Fylkir1
Throttur3
Afturelding5
Fylkir1
Fylkir3
Leiknir0
Afturelding
Afturelding3
Leiknir2
Volsungur1
Afturelding6
IR Reykjavik0
Afturelding1
Afturelding8
Aegir1
Afturelding2
Njardvik0
Vestri2
Afturelding0
Afturelding3
Stjarnan1
Kopavogur2
Afturelding1
Afturelding5
Fylkir1
Grindavik1
Afturelding3
Fylkir (Home)
Fylkir4
Njardvik1
Fylkir0
Kopavogur2
Fylkir4
Grotta2
Fylkir1
Throttur3
Fylkir3
Leiknir0
Fylkir2
IR Reykjavik1
Fylkir5
Hafnarfjordur0
Fylkir2
Vestri0
Fylkir3
Aegir0
Fylkir2
KFA0
Afturelding (Away)
Volsungur1
Afturelding6
IR Reykjavik0
Afturelding1
Vestri2
Afturelding0
Kopavogur2
Afturelding1
Grindavik1
Afturelding3
Grotta1
Afturelding3
Leiknir0
Afturelding3
IR Reykjavik2
Afturelding3
Valur4
Afturelding0
Akranes1
Afturelding2
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Tuesday, 21st July 2026, Fylkir host Afturelding at Fylkisvöllur (Reykjavík) in Icelandic Cup. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.
Fylkir arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Afturelding are travelling well, with a record of 8W 0D 2L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Fylkir, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Afturelding's 1, with 1 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 67% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.40 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Icelandic Cup match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 5 wins from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 2.5 at @1.40, sitting at roughly 80% in our model. The match gets going at 8:30 pm over at Fylkisvöllur (Reykjavík).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Fylkir vs Afturelding?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 76%.
What is Fylkir's current form?
Fylkir have won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Afturelding been performing recently?
Afturelding have recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Fylkir lead with 1 wins versus Afturelding's 1, with 1 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
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