I
Independiente 2
Home
W
D
W
W
W
8W 1D 1L
▲ Improving
VS
—
7:00 pm
—
N/A
P
Platense 2
Away
D
L
L
L
D
2W 3D 5L
→ Steady
Implied Prob
68.5%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-3.5%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
5
Independiente 2
2
Draws
0
Platense 2
7
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
57%
BTTS
71%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Independiente 2 won 5 of the last 7 meetings (2 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Independiente 2
Metric
Platense 2
2.8
Goals For / Game
0.5
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1
40%
Clean Sheets
30%
8-1-1
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate
2.6
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
I0
0-0
7.4%
0-1
5.2%
0-2
1.8%
0-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
I1
1-0
14.1%
1-1
9.9%
1-2
3.5%
1-3
0.8%
1-4
0.1%
1-5
0.0%
I2
2-0
13.4%
2-1
9.4%
2-2
3.3%
2-3
0.8%
2-4
0.1%
2-5
0.0%
I3
3-0
8.5%
3-1
5.9%
3-2
2.1%
3-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
I4
4-0
4.0%
4-1
2.8%
4-2
1.0%
4-3
0.2%
4-4
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
I5
5-0
1.5%
5-1
1.1%
5-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(14.1%)
2-0(13.4%)
2-1(9.4%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
I=Home goals ↓ P=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
27%
Home Win & BTTS No
40%
Draw & BTTS Yes
7%
Draw & BTTS No
10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
6%
Away Win & BTTS No
10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
30%
Home Win & Under 2.5
37%
Draw & Over 2.5
8%
Draw & Under 2.5
9%
Away Win & Over 2.5
7%
Away Win & Under 2.5
9%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Platense 22
Independiente 22
Independiente 22
Platense 21
Platense 20
Independiente 21
Platense 21
Independiente 22
Independiente 23
Platense 20
Platense 22
Independiente 22
Platense 20
Independiente 21
Recent Form
Independiente 2
Quilmes 21
Independiente 22
Independiente 21
Estudiantes L.P. 21
Central Cordoba 20
Independiente 22
Independiente 29
San Martin S.J. 20
Ind. Rivadavia 21
Independiente 22
Independiente 22
Deportivo Riestra 21
Independiente 22
Racing Club 23
Independiente 23
Belgrano 22
Lanus 20
Independiente 24
Independiente 21
Newells Old Boys 20
Platense 2
Platense 21
Atl. Rafaela 21
Platense 20
Colon Santa Fe 21
Quilmes 21
Platense 20
Platense 20
Estudiantes L.P. 23
Central Cordoba 20
Platense 20
Platense 20
San Martin S.J. 20
Platense 22
Ind. Rivadavia 21
Deportivo Riestra 21
Platense 20
Platense 20
Belgrano 22
Lanus 20
Platense 22
Independiente 2 (Home)
Independiente 21
Estudiantes L.P. 21
Independiente 29
San Martin S.J. 20
Independiente 22
Deportivo Riestra 21
Independiente 22
Racing Club 23
Independiente 23
Belgrano 22
Independiente 21
Newells Old Boys 20
Independiente 25
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 20
Independiente 21
Ferro 20
Independiente 21
Racing Club 22
Independiente 23
Atl. Rafaela 22
Platense 2 (Away)
Quilmes 21
Platense 20
Central Cordoba 20
Platense 20
Deportivo Riestra 21
Platense 20
Lanus 20
Platense 22
Defensa y Justicia 24
Platense 20
Huracan 20
Platense 20
Boca Juniors 22
Platense 20
Atl. Rafaela 20
Platense 21
Colon Santa Fe 21
Platense 20
Estudiantes L.P. 23
Platense 20
Match Analysis
Writeup
Let me be honest with you about how this Unknown League match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 draws, 3 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.46, sitting at roughly 52% in our model. The match gets going at 7:00 pm over at N/A.
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Independiente 2 vs Platense 2?
Our selection is 1 — Independiente 2 to win, priced at approximately 1.46. Tip confidence rating: 65%.
What is Independiente 2's current form?
Independiente 2 have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Platense 2 been performing recently?
Platense 2 have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Independiente 2 lead with 5 wins versus Platense 2's 0, with 2 draws across 7 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 57%.
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