WON Tip WON Man City W 1-0 Liverpool W
M

Man City W

Home
L W W W D
7W 1D 2L → Steady
VS
1-0
L
Liverpool W
Away
L W W D W
6W 1D 3L → Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection · Sunday, 3rd May 2026
1
Backing Man City W to win
Man City W 50%
Draw 30%
Liverpool W 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 87% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -20% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
9
Man City W
0
Draws
1
Liverpool W
10
Meetings
3.9
Avg Goals
80%
BTTS
90%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Man City W won 9 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Man City W
Metric
Liverpool W
2.8
Goals For / Game
1.5
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1
50%
Clean Sheets
40%
7-1-2
W — D — L
6-1-3
Win Rate
70%
60%
3.1
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
M0
0-0 4.7%
0-1 5.5%
0-2 3.1%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
M1
1-0 9.0%
1-1 10.4%
1-2 6.0%
1-3 2.3%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
M2
2-0 8.6%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.2%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
M3
3-0 5.4%
3-1 6.2%
3-2 3.6%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 2.6%
4-1 3.0%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 1.0%
5-1 1.1%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.8%) 1-0(9.0%) 2-0(8.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip M=Home goals ↓   L=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Man City W Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Liverpool W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Man City W
Overall
7.3
Scoring
9.3
Defence
7.3
Liverpool W
Overall
6.3
Scoring
5.0
Defence
6.7
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Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Home Win & BTTS No 30%
Draw & BTTS Yes 3%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Away Win & BTTS No 26%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 28%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 4%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 24%
Away Win & Under 2.5 19%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
12.10.25WSL
Liverpool W1
Manchester City2
16.02.25WSL
Manchester City W4
Liverpool0
13.10.24WSL
Liverpool W1
Manchester City2
07.09.24CF
Liverpool W1
Manchester City2
30.03.24WSL
Liverpool W1
Manchester City4
21.01.24WSL
Manchester City W5
Liverpool1
08.11.23CUP
Liverpool W3
Manchester City4
07.05.23WSL
Liverpool W2
Manchester City1
07.12.22CUP
Liverpool W0
Manchester City2
30.10.22WSL
Manchester City W2
Liverpool1
Recent Form
Man City W
25.04.26WSL
Brighton W3
Manchester City W2
L
06.04.26FAC
Birmingham W0
Manchester City W1
W
28.03.26WSL
Manchester Utd W0
Manchester City W3
W
21.03.26WSL
Manchester City W5
Tottenham W2
W
15.03.26WSL
Aston Villa W0
Manchester City W0
D
22.02.26FAC
Manchester City W4
Sheffield Utd W0
W
13.02.26WSL
Manchester City W6
Leicester W0
W
08.02.26WSL
Arsenal W1
Manchester City W0
L
01.02.26WSL
Manchester City W5
Chelsea W1
W
25.01.26WSL
London City Lionesses W1
Manchester City W2
W
Liverpool W
26.04.26WSL
Liverpool W0
West Ham W1
L
05.04.26FAC
Charlton W0
Liverpool W - W (aet)1
28.03.26WSL
Everton W2
Liverpool W3
W
22.03.26WSL
Brighton W0
Liverpool W0
D
15.03.26WSL
Liverpool W2
Leicester W0
W
22.02.26FAC
Liverpool W2
Everton W1
W
15.02.26WSL
Chelsea W2
Liverpool W0
L
08.02.26WSL
Liverpool W4
Aston Villa W1
W
01.02.26WSL
Manchester Utd W3
Liverpool W1
L
25.01.26WSL
Liverpool W2
Tottenham W0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Sunday, 3rd May 2026, Man City W host Liverpool W in England WSL. We recommend Man City W to win as the standout selection.

Man City W arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Liverpool W are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 1D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Man City W, who lead the head-to-head with 9 wins to Liverpool W's 1, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 80% of those meetings.

Our verdict: man city w to win at odds of 1.15 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming England WSL match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.15. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Man City W vs Liverpool W?
Our selection is 1 — Man City W to win, priced at approximately 1.15. Tip confidence rating: 67%.
What is Man City W's current form?
Man City W have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Liverpool W been performing recently?
Liverpool W have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Man City W lead with 9 wins versus Liverpool W's 1, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
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